M4A4 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$286.90

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $251.04 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.75%

314 openings, odds method

Variance

11.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 41

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

81.96%±37.86301 openings

30 days

79.75%±37.07314 openings

since tracking started

79.75%±37.07314 openings

42.0%167.3%292.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	172.24%±119.8	—	odds
7d	301	81.96%±37.9	−0.3σ	odds
30d	314	79.75%±37.1	−0.4σ	odds
All	314	79.75%±37.1	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 353 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 41	$6,120	59.5%	9	8.6	1.05×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$1,435	13.9%	4	8.6	0.46×
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$799	7.8%	11	8.6	1.28×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 123	$324	1.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$307	1.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$246	1.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 41	$236	2.3%	12	8.6	1.39×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 205	$203	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 205	$183	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 123	$172	0.6%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$156	0.8%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$137	1.3%	8	8.6	0.93×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 123	$120	0.4%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$106	0.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$105	0.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$102	0.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 82	$99.99	0.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 82	$98.55	0.5%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 41	$90.76	0.9%	14	8.6	1.63×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 205	$87.55	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$81.55	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$68.70	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$68.38	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$64.61	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$63.74	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$62.44	0.6%	5	8.6	0.58×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$55.89	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 41	$47.11	0.5%	10	8.6	1.16×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 205	$46.94	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 123	$45.89	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 41	$39.47	0.4%	7	8.6	0.81×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 205	$39.31	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$39.28	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 123	$39.09	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 123	$38.39	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 164	$38.01	0.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 123	$35.86	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$35.83	0.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 205	$34.36	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 123	$33.72	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$33.08	0.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$32.88	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 205	$27.62	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$26.87	0.3%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$24.74	0.1%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 123	$23.61	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$22.14	0.2%	10	8.6	1.16×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 205	$18.24	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 123	$16.38	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 164	$16.28	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 123	$16.28	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$14.99	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 164	$14.95	0.0%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 205	$13.61	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$12.47	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 164	$11.45	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 205	$11.15	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 164	$10.07	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 164	$9.75	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$8.51	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 164	$7.63	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$7.03	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 164	$6.73	0.0%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$6.64	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 164	$6.40	0.0%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$5.83	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$5.02	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 164	$4.80	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 164	$4.57	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 164	$4.51	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$4.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$3.98	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$3.78	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$3.75	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$3.66	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 205	$3.60	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$3.49	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$2.19	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 123	$1.65	0.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 164	$1.44	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$1.36	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$1.32	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$1.30	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$1.16	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 123	$1.06	0.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$1.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 205	$0.95	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$0.83	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.81	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$0.80	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 205	$0.72	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 123	$0.67	0.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 164	$0.58	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$0.44	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$0.42	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 205	$0.40	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 164	$0.28	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 205	$0.28	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.26	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.24	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 205	$0.23	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 205	$0.17	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 205	$0.17	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.09	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 205	$0.09	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 205	$0.08	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.08	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 205	$0.08	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 205	$0.05	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.05	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 205	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 205	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 205	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 205	$0.02	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 205	$0.02	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/m4a4-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$287$6,12021.33x21h

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$289$6,12021.16x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$286$6,12021.42x6d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandBMW enjoyer _lt;3$287$6,12021.34x7d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$288$6,12021.28x5d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$287$6,12021.34x5d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandco tam$286$6,04721.11x8d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$287$1,4835.17x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$287$1370.48x21h

M4A4 | Poly Magweapon · blue$287$0.260.00x21h

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specgrochalek$287$39.470.14x21h

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pink$287$28.810.10x21h

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · red$287$41.120.14x21h

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violetgrochalek$287$3.960.01x21h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classified$287$5.150.02x21h

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$287$6,12021.33x21h

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pinkgrochalek$287$20.930.07x21h

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red$287$2360.82x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$289	87.50%	124
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$291	87.50%	124
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$290	87.50%	124
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$288	87.50%	124
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$287	87.50%	124
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$286	87.50%	124
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$287	87.50%	124

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 2.4%classified 9.8%restricted 9.0%Ancient 3.9%covert 14.8%red 8.9%epic 0.5%rare 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.2%industrial 2.4%blue 6.7%mil spec 5.7%Legendary 1.1%pink 6.1%violet 7.7%Mythical 1.7%uncommon 1.1%#8847ff 2.9%Classified 0.5%#d32ee6 0.6%milspec 2.0%Rare 2.3%light blue 1.0%Uncommon 2.9%blueLight 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.5%#87c7ff 1.0%#5e98d9 1.0%best hit $6,120 (21.33x)