MIL-SPEC

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$0.35

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.31 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.08%

56.7K openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.64%±2.846,939 openings

7 days

84.80%±1.0847.7K openings

30 days

85.08%±0.9956.7K openings

since tracking started

85.08%±0.9956.7K openings

83.0%86.5%90.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.09% – 86.07%, 56,675 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,939	86.64%±2.84	−0.3σ	odds
7d	47.7K	84.80%±1.08	−2.3σ	odds
30d	56.7K	85.08%±0.99	−2.3σ	odds
All	56.7K	85.08%±0.99	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50,000	$46.80	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14,286	$20.66	0.5%	2	4.0	0.50×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11,111	$17.54	0.5%	6	5.1	1.17×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 8,333	$10.99	0.4%	5	6.8	0.73×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$5.37	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$4.57	0.3%	0	11.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,000	$3.29	0.5%	21	28.4	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 3,333	$2.49	0.2%	0	17.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 1,429	$1.85	0.4%	0	39.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 188	$1.19	2.1%	0	301.4	0.00×
P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$1.10	7.8%	1,157	1225.4	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 113	$0.92	2.7%	0	504.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 87	$0.81	3.0%	0	650.4	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.78	7.8%	1,438	1728.2	0.83×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 51	$0.61	3.9%	0	1105.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 51	$0.61	3.9%	0	1105.0	0.00×
P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 130	$0.61	1.5%	0	436.5	0.00×
Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 51	$0.60	3.9%	0	1123.2	0.00×
Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.60	3.9%	0	1123.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 42	$0.43	3.3%	0	1337.7	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 43	$0.43	3.2%	0	1313.3	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 49	$0.35	2.3%	0	1166.9	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$0.32	3.8%	0	2068.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.32	2.2%	0	1195.8	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 27	$0.31	3.8%	0	2123.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 41	$0.29	2.3%	0	1372.4	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.24	5.6%	4,800	4047.3	1.19×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.20	5.0%	4,914	4353.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.20	5.0%	4,784	4353.8	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.17	4.5%	4,984	4646.0	1.07×
P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.15	3.4%	0	3920.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$0.15	4.2%	5,000	4884.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.14	4.0%	5,087	5021.2	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 10	$0.11	3.5%	5,278	5529.7	0.95×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/mil-spec, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSTACHovskyy|CS2.ME$0.35$20.7559.29x6d

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.35$20.5358.66x2d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$0.35$18.3852.51x6d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blueArons$0.35$18.3852.51x6d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$0.35$18.2052.00x7d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$0.35$17.5450.11x15h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.35$0.170.49x19s

P250 | Exchangerweapon · blue$0.35$0.200.57x19s

MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)weapon · blue$0.35$0.240.69x19s

AK-47 | Wintergreenweapon · bluePWZL$0.35$0.611.74x19s

R8 Revolver | Junk Yardweapon · blue$0.35$0.320.91x24s

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rotweapon · blue$0.35$0.932.66x24s

Nova | Windblownweapon · blue$0.35$0.361.03x24s

R8 Revolver | Junk Yardweapon · blueMegan Fox$0.35$0.320.91x24s

P250 | Exchangerweapon · blueSpouky$0.35$0.200.57x1m

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blueSpouky$0.35$0.200.57x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.35	87.50%	34
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$0.35	86.80%	34
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$0.35	83.94%	34
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$0.35	85.34%	34
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$0.35	84.32%	34
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$0.35	85.71%	34
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$0.35	86.05%	34
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$0.35	86.52%	34
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.35	86.68%	34
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.35	86.97%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.35	87.51%	34
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.35	88.11%	34
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.35	87.32%	34
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$0.35	86.81%	34
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.35	87.10%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 3.1%blue 64.1%Rare 13.3%#4b69ff 13.8%milspec 2.0%Mil Spec 3.7%best hit $20.75 (59.29x)