MIL-SPEC JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$5.62

Advertised RTP

87.51%

EV $4.92 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.91%

119 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

76.91%±33.08119 openings

30 days

76.91%±33.08119 openings

since tracking started

76.91%±33.08119 openings

-0.5%107.3%215.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	7.18%±207.4	—	odds
7d	119	76.91%±33.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	119	76.91%±33.1	−0.6σ	odds
All	119	76.91%±33.1	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$46.80	41.4%	4	5.4	0.74×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$20.66	18.3%	5	5.4	0.93×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$17.54	15.5%	5	5.4	0.93×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$10.99	9.7%	5	5.4	0.93×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$5.37	2.4%	0	2.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$4.57	2.0%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$3.29	2.9%	4	5.4	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$2.49	1.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$1.85	0.8%	0	2.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 69	$1.19	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$1.10	1.0%	2	5.4	0.37×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 69	$0.92	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 69	$0.81	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$0.78	0.7%	2	5.4	0.37×
P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$0.61	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.61	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.61	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$0.60	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$0.60	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 46	$0.43	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 46	$0.43	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 69	$0.35	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$0.32	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 69	$0.32	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 46	$0.31	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 69	$0.29	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.24	0.2%	7	5.4	1.30×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.20	0.2%	6	5.4	1.11×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.20	0.2%	4	5.4	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.17	0.2%	6	5.4	1.11×
P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.15	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$0.15	0.1%	8	5.4	1.48×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.14	0.1%	8	5.4	1.48×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.11	0.1%	2	5.4	0.37×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/mil-spec-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Wintergreenweapon · blueKRZAQ CS2.ME CS2SKINS.GIFT$5.48$0.690.13x5h

R8 Revolver | Junk Yardweapon · blueskins.army$5.48$0.320.06x11h

Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueskins.army$5.48$0.170.03x11h

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blueCHaMpioN$5.48$3.290.60x1d

Nova | Rangerweapon · blueCHaMpioN$5.48$0.610.11x1d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blueCHaMpioN$5.48$17.223.14x1d

Nova | Rangerweapon · blueKYZΞN$5.62$0.610.11x1d

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueKYZΞN$5.62$0.120.02x1d

SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffKYZΞN$5.62$0.810.14x1d

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rotweapon · blueJustin Credible$5.48$1.030.19x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$5.62	87.51%	34
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$5.48	87.51%	34
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$5.62	87.57%	34
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$5.48	87.49%	34
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$5.48	87.57%	34
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$5.59	87.48%	34
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$5.53	87.43%	34
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$5.59	87.48%	34
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$5.48	87.53%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 18.8%blue 52.9%Rare 13.0%#4b69ff 10.9%milspec 2.2%Mil Spec 2.2%best hit —