QUANTUM

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$358.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $313.26 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.37%

1,802 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.45%±14.88168 openings

7 days

88.03%±5.221,440 openings

30 days

88.37%±4.671,802 openings

since tracking started

88.37%±4.671,802 openings

63.0%78.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	168	78.45%±14.9	−1.2σ	odds
7d	1,440	88.03%±5.22	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,802	88.37%±4.67	+0.3σ	odds
All	1,802	88.37%±4.67	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,802 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$10.3K	0.3%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$8,950	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 5,000	$6,120	0.4%	1	0.4	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$2,980	0.4%	0	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$2,262	0.4%	1	1.1	0.92×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,751	0.4%	3	1.3	2.38×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$1,707	0.4%	3	1.4	2.08×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,498	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$1,435	0.4%	3	1.6	1.85×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,398	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,361	0.4%	5	1.8	2.77×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,345	0.4%	2	1.8	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$1,167	7.7%	33	37.3	0.88×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$1,066	2.7%	0	14.4	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 164	$1,023	2.0%	0	11.0	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 62	$908	4.7%	0	29.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 41	$797	6.2%	46	43.6	1.05×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 114	$759	2.1%	0	15.9	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 87	$666	2.4%	0	20.7	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 47	$584	4.0%	0	38.4	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$582	0.7%	0	7.2	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 313	$563	0.6%	0	5.8	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$549	6.2%	65	63.3	1.03×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 27	$530	6.2%	0	65.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 21	$446	6.9%	0	87.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$365	8.5%	0	131.2	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 17	$357	6.9%	205	108.7	1.89×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 48	$337	2.2%	0	37.7	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 41	$291	2.3%	0	44.0	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 34	$266	2.5%	0	52.4	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 49	$196	1.3%	0	36.6	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 45	$184	1.3%	0	39.8	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 30	$169	1.8%	0	60.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 12	$160	4.2%	165	147.2	1.12×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 12	$159	4.2%	167	147.6	1.13×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 26	$154	1.9%	0	68.8	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 34	$150	1.4%	0	53.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 22	$87.50	1.2%	0	80.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 15	$65.48	1.4%	0	120.4	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	12.3%	$56.11	2.2%	197	222.2	0.89×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/quantum, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · coverthossy$358$10.3K28.70x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband$358$6,12017.09x6d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$358$2,2376.25x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$358$1,7985.02x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covertSzmaciarz997$358$1,7674.94x4d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$358$1,7544.90x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$358$1,7184.80x3d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$358$1,7184.80x4d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedhossy$358$1,7104.78x1d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$358$1,4694.10x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Sport Gloves | Vicegloves · sunny$358$3801.06x5m

★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steelknife · sunny$358$74.300.21x5m

★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertroninbaby$358$56.110.16x5m

★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steelknife · sunny$358$74.300.21x6m

★ Bayonet | Loreknife · sunny$358$3941.10x6m

★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$358$1590.45x6m

★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertroninbaby$358$56.110.16x6m

★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert$358$56.110.16x8m

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$358$1600.45x8m

★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertroninbaby$358$3571.00x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$358	87.50%	40
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$358	87.34%	40
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$358	87.44%	40
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$358	87.74%	40
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$358	87.43%	40
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$358	87.67%	40
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$358	87.31%	40
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$358	87.57%	40
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$358	87.65%	40
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$358	87.72%	40
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$358	87.69%	40
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$358	87.32%	40
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$358	87.65%	40
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$358	87.61%	40
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$358	87.59%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 53.8%contraband 0.0%classified 0.1%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 27.3%rare 3.6%gold 0.9%legendary 0.3%epic 13.9%best hit $10.3K (28.70x)