SHADOW DAGGERS
A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$62.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $54.69 from 68 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.89%
1,711 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,711 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/shadow-daggers, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $62.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $62.50 | 87.64% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $62.50 | 87.63% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $62.50 | 87.32% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $62.50 | 87.40% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $62.50 | 87.54% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $62.50 | 87.39% | 68 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $62.50 | 87.54% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $62.50 | 87.59% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $62.50 | 87.33% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $62.50 | 87.33% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $62.50 | 87.70% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $62.50 | 87.56% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $62.50 | 87.51% | 68 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $62.50 | 87.60% | 68 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 36.4%Covert 5.8%red 1.3%Immortal 2.4%classified 15.0%sunny 2.3%gold 5.0%Ancient 1.3%pink 5.3%Legendary 4.9%Classified 5.3%Mythical 5.8%uncommon 4.2%violet 5.0%best hit —