SHADOW DAGGERS JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$100.17
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $87.65 from 68 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.69%
272 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 285 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/shadow-daggers-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $100 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $98.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $97.68 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $98.03 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $98.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $100 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 68 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 53.3%Covert 8.0%red 2.3%Immortal 3.3%classified 11.1%sunny 2.7%gold 5.0%Ancient 1.3%pink 3.2%Legendary 3.1%Classified 2.6%Mythical 2.4%uncommon 0.8%violet 0.8%best hit —