SPAJKK

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.76%

EV $43.88 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.90%

3,021 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.74%±13.50324 openings

7 days

86.33%±4.742,671 openings

30 days

86.90%±4.453,021 openings

since tracking started

86.90%±4.453,021 openings

74.5%88.8%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	324	88.74%±13.5	+0.1σ	odds
7d	2,671	86.33%±4.74	−0.5σ	odds
30d	3,021	86.90%±4.45	−0.3σ	odds
All	3,021	86.90%±4.45	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,027 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$5,409	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4	1 in 3,571	$823	0.5%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$641	0.5%	2	1.1	1.84×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,273	$520	0.5%	4	1.3	3.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,852	$425	0.5%	2	1.6	1.22×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,786	$407	0.5%	2	1.7	1.18×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire	1 in 1,754	$399	0.5%	4	1.7	2.32×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,754	$398	0.5%	2	1.7	1.16×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,667	$374	0.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4	1 in 1,205	$273	0.5%	2	2.5	0.80×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$247	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$218	0.1%	0	0.8	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,961	$217	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,754	$205	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$172	4.1%	0	31.7	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 26	$151	13.2%	112	115.8	0.97×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$121	3.4%	0	37.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,326	$112	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 380	$109	0.7%	0	8.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$105	3.7%	0	46.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$93.39	4.1%	0	58.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 115	$86.95	1.7%	0	26.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 125	$84.34	1.5%	0	24.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$83.87	1.7%	0	27.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 101	$81.37	1.8%	0	29.8	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 52	$80.23	3.5%	0	57.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 68	$71.37	2.4%	0	44.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 64	$69.46	2.5%	0	46.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 73	$68.70	2.1%	0	41.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$68.38	2.2%	0	41.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 73	$67.75	2.1%	0	41.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 30	$65.25	4.9%	0	100.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$63.74	2.3%	0	47.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$63.63	1.7%	0	36.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$61.58	1.3%	0	28.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 74	$53.21	1.6%	0	40.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$49.34	1.8%	0	47.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$46.07	1.8%	0	51.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$45.59	4.5%	125	130.6	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$45.36	2.1%	0	60.1	0.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$44.61	1.7%	0	51.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 61	$43.07	1.6%	0	49.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$41.26	1.7%	0	53.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$39.28	1.0%	0	33.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$37.43	2.2%	0	78.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 81	$35.86	1.0%	0	37.3	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 485	$34.98	0.2%	0	6.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$34.60	1.4%	0	51.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 73	$33.72	1.1%	0	41.5	0.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$28.23	2.1%	0	97.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$27.57	1.5%	0	72.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 47	$25.56	1.2%	0	64.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 39	$22.48	1.3%	0	76.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 162	$15.77	0.2%	0	18.7	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 133	$13.45	0.2%	0	22.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 243	$9.67	0.1%	0	12.5	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$5.74	0.3%	0	74.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$5.37	0.3%	0	82.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 30	$4.69	0.4%	0	99.5	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$4.61	0.3%	0	99.5	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$4.57	0.3%	0	101.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$4.47	0.4%	0	107.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$2.85	0.1%	0	64.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$1.79	0.2%	0	124.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$1.76	0.2%	0	126.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$1.70	0.2%	0	132.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/spajkk, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.00$69113.82x6d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.00$64112.83x17h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$50.00$52210.45x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4⚡яєqυє™⚡$50.00$52010.40x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$50.00$52010.40x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$50.00$51810.36x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$50.00$6.160.12x7m

Desert Eagle | Sputnikweapon · blue$50.00$2.120.04x7m

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$50.00$6.160.12x7m

M4A4 | The Emperorweapon · redserqu$50.00$69.761.40x7m

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$50.00$6.160.12x26m

★ Gut Knife | Bright Waterknife · sunny$50.00$70.741.41x26m

M4A1-S | Bright Waterweapon · violetliv$50.00$40.860.82x26m

Desert Eagle | Sputnikweapon · blue$50.00$2.120.04x39m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$50.00	87.76%	66
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$50.00	87.33%	66
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$50.00	87.66%	66
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$50.00	87.59%	66
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$50.00	87.25%	66
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$50.00	87.59%	66
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$50.00	87.24%	66
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$50.00	87.59%	66
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$50.00	87.39%	66
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$50.00	87.74%	66
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$50.00	87.39%	66
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$50.00	87.70%	66
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$50.00	87.38%	66
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$50.00	87.70%	66
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$50.00	87.38%	66
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$50.00	87.53%	66
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$50.00	87.52%	66
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$50.00	87.24%	66
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$50.00	87.52%	66
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$50.00	87.41%	66
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$50.00	87.24%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.4%legendary 0.0%classified 16.4%gold 1.7%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 10.2%red 5.0%rare 6.0%pink 1.6%restricted 11.6%Ancient 1.4%Mythical 0.8%blue 15.2%violet 6.6%best hit $691 (13.82x)