SPAJKK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$446.81

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $390.96 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.41%

250 openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

77.42%±30.14205 openings

30 days

84.41%±27.23250 openings

since tracking started

84.41%±27.23250 openings

36.0%111.0%186.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	110.93%±74.3	—	odds
7d	205	77.42%±30.1	−0.7σ	odds
30d	250	84.41%±27.2	−0.2σ	odds
All	250	84.41%±27.2	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 254 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 28	$5,401	49.3%	8	9.1	0.88×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4	1 in 28	$832	7.6%	10	9.1	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$658	6.0%	15	9.1	1.65×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 28	$522	4.8%	11	9.1	1.21×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 28	$412	3.8%	5	9.1	0.55×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 28	$412	3.8%	5	9.1	0.55×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 28	$393	3.6%	7	9.1	0.77×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire	1 in 28	$387	3.5%	8	9.1	0.88×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 28	$367	3.3%	8	9.1	0.88×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4	1 in 28	$277	2.5%	5	9.1	0.55×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$245	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$223	0.7%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$212	1.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$203	0.9%	0	4.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$168	0.5%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 28	$150	1.4%	10	9.1	1.10×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$120	0.4%	0	3.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$112	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$105	0.5%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$99.92	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$92.83	0.4%	0	4.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 112	$86.95	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 140	$83.98	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$83.84	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 112	$79.59	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 56	$76.35	0.3%	0	4.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 112	$74.50	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$71.42	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$70.07	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 112	$67.99	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 84	$65.36	0.2%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 56	$64.43	0.3%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$61.90	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$60.82	0.2%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$60.80	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$53.08	0.2%	0	3.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$49.41	0.2%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$48.61	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$46.07	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$44.82	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$44.76	0.4%	10	9.1	1.10×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$43.42	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 84	$42.46	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$40.38	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$36.66	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$36.37	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 140	$36.28	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$34.13	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 140	$34.02	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$27.92	0.1%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$26.56	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$23.99	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$23.12	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$17.03	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$12.48	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$10.31	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$6.15	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$5.13	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$5.11	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$4.91	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$4.68	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$4.38	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$2.71	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$1.77	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$1.74	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$1.68	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/spajkk-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$455$5,44711.97x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireIIIPEPSI COLAIII$455$5,44711.97x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$455$5,44711.97x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$452$5,43312.01x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$451$5,40911.99x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireMalutki Kamilek$447$5,40112.09x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$447$5,40112.09x3h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4$455$8631.90x8d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4Kroko$451$8561.90x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Bright Waterweapon · violet$447$42.490.10x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireMalutki Kamilek$447$5,40112.09x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$447$5,40112.09x3h

M4A4 | The Emperorweapon · red$447$1070.24x3h

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$447$13.800.03x3h

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · redRadziu$447$1700.38x3h

Desert Eagle | Sputnikweapon · blue$447$3.640.01x3h

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire$447$3870.87x3h

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$447$4120.92x3h

Glock-18 | AXIAweapon · pinkRadziu$447$33.390.07x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$447	87.50%	66
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$448	87.50%	66
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$448	87.50%	66
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$448	87.50%	66
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$448	87.50%	66
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$451	87.50%	66
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$451	87.50%	66
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$451	87.50%	66
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$451	87.50%	66
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$452	87.50%	66
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$452	87.50%	66
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$454	87.50%	66
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$455	87.50%	66
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$453	87.50%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.0%legendary 3.6%classified 16.7%gold 8.0%extraordinary 3.6%mil spec 3.6%red 3.8%rare 3.6%pink 1.2%restricted 8.6%Ancient 0.7%Mythical 0.7%blue 3.6%violet 1.4%best hit $5,447 (11.97x)