TITAN

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$14.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $12.69 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.02%

8,465 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.00%±8.791,423 openings

7 days

86.95%±3.847,626 openings

30 days

87.02%±3.658,465 openings

since tracking started

87.02%±3.658,465 openings

79.5%89.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,423	89.00%±8.79	+0.3σ	odds
7d	7,626	86.95%±3.84	−0.3σ	odds
30d	8,465	87.02%±3.65	−0.2σ	odds
All	8,465	87.02%±3.65	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,478 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$2,804	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$1,248	0.7%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$247	0.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$222	0.6%	3	2.7	1.11×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 3,030	$220	0.6%	2	2.8	0.71×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$164	0.1%	0	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$156	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$143	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$139	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$137	0.1%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,667	$118	0.6%	4	5.1	0.79×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$116	0.6%	6	5.2	1.16×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$114	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$88.63	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,235	$86.95	0.6%	11	6.9	1.60×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$85.27	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$84.99	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,613	$84.62	0.4%	0	5.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,941	$79.28	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,030	$75.44	0.2%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$74.67	0.3%	0	3.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$72.52	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,778	$71.37	0.2%	0	3.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$68.57	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$67.44	0.6%	10	8.8	1.13×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$66.08	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$65.16	0.3%	0	4.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$64.44	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$62.44	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$61.15	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$59.09	0.3%	0	4.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,448	$57.58	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$54.85	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$51.70	7.7%	80	159.6	0.50×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 426	$51.53	1.0%	0	19.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 397	$46.91	0.9%	0	21.4	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$44.35	7.7%	215	186.1	1.16×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 174	$44.05	2.0%	0	48.8	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 130	$38.14	2.3%	0	65.1	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 127	$37.68	2.3%	0	66.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 57	$35.60	4.9%	0	148.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 59	$33.32	4.5%	0	143.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 49	$33.08	5.3%	0	172.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 88	$30.76	2.7%	0	95.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$25.62	4.5%	0	188.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 296	$24.27	0.6%	0	28.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$21.99	6.7%	0	329.9	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$19.72	3.1%	0	168.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$19.42	2.8%	0	155.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 226	$18.64	0.6%	0	37.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$18.39	3.3%	0	194.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$17.82	0.6%	0	37.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$16.80	5.0%	0	317.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$15.51	4.3%	0	296.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$15.43	4.3%	0	299.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$9.70	2.4%	0	265.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$8.86	0.5%	0	62.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 113	$7.65	0.5%	0	75.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 521	$6.03	0.1%	0	16.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 216	$5.88	0.2%	0	39.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 246	$5.66	0.2%	0	34.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$4.88	0.6%	0	141.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$4.80	0.7%	0	148.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$4.24	0.7%	0	176.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$4.22	0.7%	0	173.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$4.21	0.7%	0	190.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$4.16	0.7%	0	176.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$4.02	0.8%	0	203.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 44	$4.01	0.7%	0	190.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$3.96	0.8%	0	207.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$3.23	0.2%	0	75.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 93	$3.22	0.3%	0	91.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 164	$2.63	0.1%	0	51.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.87	0.3%	0	195.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$1.56	0.4%	0	251.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$1.33	0.4%	0	314.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$1.30	0.3%	0	269.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 31	$1.29	0.3%	0	272.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$1.15	0.3%	0	320.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$0.66	0.2%	0	358.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$0.58	0.2%	0	429.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$0.54	0.2%	0	475.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/titan, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violet$14.50$1.910.13x5m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violet$14.50$0.730.05x5m

AK-47 | Head Shotweapon · red$14.50$34.432.37x5m

SSG 08 | Turbo Peekweapon · pinkSabaizabal cstorm.pro$14.50$22.721.57x5m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pink$14.50$5.630.39x6m

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$14.50$44.353.06x6m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$14.50$1.550.11x6m

SSG 08 | Turbo Peekweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$14.50$22.721.57x6m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pink$14.50$4.920.34x9m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restrictedNikoš$14.50$1.550.11x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$14.50	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$14.50	87.64%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$14.50	87.20%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$14.50	87.49%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$14.50	87.30%	82
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$14.50	87.56%	82
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$14.50	87.78%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$14.50	87.33%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$14.50	87.67%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$14.50	87.33%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$14.50	87.28%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$14.50	87.38%	82
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$14.50	87.79%	82
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$14.50	87.69%	82
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$14.50	87.24%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$14.50	87.47%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.1%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%Mythical 6.4%red 3.0%Ancient 2.6%classified 24.1%pink 19.6%Covert 0.0%#d32ee6 2.2%Classified 1.7%Legendary 5.9%violet 13.2%uncommon 8.3%restricted 9.8%best hit —