TITAN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$217.40

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $190.22 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.56%

419 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92 openings · below min

7 days

68.45%±24.24377 openings

30 days

76.56%±23.02419 openings

since tracking started

76.56%±23.02419 openings

27.5%76.8%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	92	76.81%±48.7	—	odds
7d	377	68.45%±24.2	−1.5σ	odds
30d	419	76.56%±23.0	−0.9σ	odds
All	419	76.56%±23.0	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 455 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$2,804	46.1%	14	14.2	0.98×
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 32	$1,300	21.4%	6	14.2	0.42×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$245	2.0%	0	7.1	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$222	3.7%	13	14.2	0.91×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 32	$220	3.6%	11	14.2	0.77×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$165	0.7%	0	3.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$154	0.6%	0	3.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$144	0.6%	0	3.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$140	0.6%	0	3.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$136	0.6%	0	3.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 32	$120	2.0%	17	14.2	1.20×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$115	1.9%	15	14.2	1.05×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 96	$112	0.6%	0	4.7	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$92.31	0.4%	0	3.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 32	$86.95	1.4%	15	14.2	1.05×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 96	$85.33	0.5%	0	4.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 64	$83.98	0.7%	0	7.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 96	$81.46	0.4%	0	4.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$77.59	0.6%	0	7.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$77.11	0.4%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$76.24	0.4%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 96	$75.41	0.4%	0	4.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$71.99	0.4%	0	4.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$70.26	0.3%	0	3.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$67.35	1.1%	16	14.2	1.13×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$65.74	1.1%	0	14.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$65.16	0.3%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$65.16	0.5%	0	7.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$61.49	0.3%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$59.69	0.3%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$59.23	0.5%	0	7.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$56.50	0.5%	0	7.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 96	$56.47	0.3%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$55.91	0.9%	10	14.2	0.70×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$50.89	0.2%	0	3.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$46.94	0.2%	0	3.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 96	$46.74	0.3%	0	4.7	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$43.61	0.7%	16	14.2	1.13×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 128	$36.92	0.2%	0	3.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 128	$36.11	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$34.26	0.2%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$32.56	0.2%	0	4.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 96	$32.03	0.2%	0	4.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 128	$29.48	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$26.42	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$24.31	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$22.77	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 128	$21.27	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$19.35	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$18.53	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$18.28	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$18.07	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$15.70	0.3%	0	14.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$15.42	0.3%	0	14.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$14.43	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$9.92	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$8.95	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$7.51	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$5.81	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$5.80	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$5.55	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$5.01	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$4.51	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$4.33	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$4.24	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$4.18	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$4.07	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$4.06	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$4.05	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$4.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$3.18	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$3.14	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$2.65	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$1.95	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$1.51	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$1.30	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 160	$1.30	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$1.30	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$1.18	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$0.64	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 160	$0.60	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$0.52	0.0%	0	2.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/titan-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertarmataPowPow skins.army$220$2,91613.27x6d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertXAK1$219$2,88013.15x8d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$217$2,87513.25x7d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$217$2,84113.08x5d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertÖrdög$217$2,84113.08x6d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$217$2,82813.02x1d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$218$2,82812.97x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covertTØXIC$217$1150.53x14m

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · MythicalTØXIC$217$1200.55x14m

SG 553 | Colony IVweapon · pink$217$25.330.12x26m

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$217$1,3005.98x26m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$217$57.860.27x26m

SG 553 | Colony IVweapon · pinkRadziu$217$25.330.12x26m

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pink$217$32.290.15x2h

SSG 08 | Turbo Peekweapon · pink$217$29.980.14x2h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$217$67.350.31x2h

MAC-10 | Neon Riderweapon · covertMar_Bat123 OsloRP$217$1510.69x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$217	87.50%	82
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$215	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$216	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$217	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$218	87.50%	82
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$216	87.50%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$218	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$218	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$217	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$217	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$220	87.50%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$217	87.50%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 34.4%extraordinary 3.1%epic 3.1%Mythical 6.9%red 8.6%Ancient 2.9%classified 14.5%pink 14.4%Covert 1.0%#d32ee6 1.8%Classified 1.0%Legendary 2.7%violet 3.1%uncommon 1.3%restricted 1.3%best hit $2,916 (13.27x)