WAR GOD JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$105.55
Advertised RTP
88.40%
EV $93.31 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.19%
1,164 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.60% – 107.78%, 1,164 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,168 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/war-god-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $106 | 88.40% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $110 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $111 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $110 | 87.50% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 4.5%extraordinary 4.5%covert 22.7%red 4.5%Ancient 4.5%classified 5.7%Legendary 2.3%pink 3.4%#d32ee6 2.3%#8847ff 6.6%Mythical 3.0%violet 17.7%blue 11.8%mil spec 0.9%#4b69ff 0.9%gray 4.5%best hit $719 (6.81x)