WARZONE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$75.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $65.62 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.41%

1,576 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.73%±11.22274 openings

7 days

83.41%±4.931,428 openings

30 days

83.41%±4.691,576 openings

since tracking started

83.41%±4.691,576 openings

74.0%85.8%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	274	85.73%±11.2	−0.3σ	odds
7d	1,428	83.41%±4.93	−1.6σ	odds
30d	1,576	83.41%±4.69	−1.7σ	odds
All	1,576	83.41%±4.69	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,576 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,128	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$1,096	1.0%	0	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$826	0.9%	3	1.1	2.72×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 1,250	$807	1.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,000	$428	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$426	0.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$396	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$348	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$345	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$286	0.9%	2	3.3	0.60×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$218	4.8%	0	22.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$217	5.3%	0	25.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$195	4.6%	0	24.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$191	1.2%	0	6.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$174	2.6%	10	15.6	0.64×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$169	0.8%	0	4.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$166	0.8%	0	5.2	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 357	$164	0.7%	0	4.4	0.00×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$161	2.6%	8	16.9	0.47×
AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 213	$158	1.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$157	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$156	0.8%	0	5.5	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 278	$154	0.8%	0	5.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 294	$152	0.8%	0	5.4	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 313	$152	0.7%	0	5.0	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 123	$150	1.8%	0	12.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 303	$149	0.7%	0	5.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 238	$148	0.9%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 345	$138	0.6%	0	4.6	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 167	$133	1.2%	0	9.5	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 196	$130	1.0%	0	8.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$128	0.4%	0	2.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$121	1.1%	0	9.8	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 196	$121	0.9%	0	8.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$117	1.5%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 123	$115	1.4%	0	12.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$109	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$106	1.7%	0	16.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$105	2.0%	0	19.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$98.91	0.4%	0	4.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$96.05	4.3%	49	46.5	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$95.58	4.3%	46	46.6	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$90.82	1.6%	0	18.4	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 89	$90.10	1.5%	0	17.7	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 85	$83.95	1.5%	0	18.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$83.46	2.8%	0	34.2	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 67	$77.91	1.8%	0	23.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$71.74	1.0%	0	15.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 24	$66.23	4.3%	0	66.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$65.44	3.5%	0	55.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$64.37	0.8%	0	12.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$54.96	1.4%	0	26.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$54.89	2.8%	0	53.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$53.92	1.4%	0	27.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 85	$45.56	0.8%	0	18.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 26	$45.37	2.6%	0	59.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 73	$44.56	0.9%	0	21.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$40.12	0.9%	0	22.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 68	$39.11	0.9%	0	23.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 208	$38.48	0.3%	0	7.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 66	$38.08	0.9%	0	23.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$37.79	1.0%	0	27.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$37.41	1.0%	0	27.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$34.04	1.0%	0	29.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$30.36	1.0%	0	34.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$29.28	1.0%	0	36.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$19.65	0.7%	0	37.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$17.75	0.7%	0	43.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$16.98	0.8%	0	45.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$13.65	0.4%	0	32.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$12.75	0.4%	0	35.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$12.55	0.4%	0	36.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$12.34	0.4%	0	37.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	13.4%	$5.88	1.2%	213	211.8	1.01×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/warzone, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$75.00$83111.09x20h

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertNib♥$75.00$83111.08x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertAdiksoon$75.00$82511.00x2d

M4A4 | The Coalitionweapon · covert$75.00$5917.88x7d

M4A4 | The Coalitionweapon · covertCICINKA67CS2.ME$75.00$5647.52x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardenedknife · rare$75.00$1221.63x1h

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthysweapon · pink$75.00$93.981.25x1h

Tec-9 | Decimatorweapon · pink$75.00$19.590.26x1h

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthysweapon · pinkRzęchwę$75.00$93.981.25x1h

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · red$75.00$43.160.58x1h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet$75.00$5.880.08x1h

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · red$75.00$43.160.58x1h

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedRzęchwę$75.00$1742.32x1h

Tec-9 | Decimatorweapon · pink$75.00$19.590.26x1h

M4A1-S | Master Pieceweapon · classified$75.00$1592.12x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$75.00	87.50%	74
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$75.00	87.88%	74
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$75.00	87.34%	74
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$75.00	87.42%	74
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$75.00	87.46%	74
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$75.00	87.52%	74
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$75.00	87.31%	74
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$75.00	87.51%	74
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$75.00	87.41%	74
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$75.00	87.51%	74
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$75.00	87.61%	74
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$75.00	87.51%	74
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$75.00	87.83%	74
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$75.00	87.61%	74
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$75.00	87.59%	74
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$75.00	87.36%	74
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$75.00	87.49%	74
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$75.00	87.44%	74
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$75.00	87.57%	74

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 22.1%rare 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%extraordinary 3.2%classified 33.7%restricted 7.2%sunny 3.5%red 2.6%Ancient 12.1%pink 2.1%violet 13.4%best hit $831 (11.09x)