WILD WEST JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$80.80

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $70.70 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.05%

714 openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92 openings · below min

7 days

90.83%±18.39532 openings

30 days

92.05%±15.79714 openings

since tracking started

92.05%±15.79714 openings

44.5%89.3%134.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	92	89.40%±44.1	—	odds
7d	532	90.83%±18.4	+0.4σ	odds
30d	714	92.05%±15.8	+0.6σ	odds
All	714	92.05%±15.8	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 718 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 25	$759	42.9%	31	28.7	1.08×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 25	$513	29.0%	26	28.7	0.91×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$176	9.9%	37	28.7	1.29×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$109	6.2%	37	28.7	1.29×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$65.44	3.7%	38	28.7	1.32×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$63.82	0.9%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$51.04	0.6%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$42.72	0.6%	0	7.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$42.22	0.6%	0	7.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$41.83	0.6%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$27.14	0.4%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 100	$19.78	0.3%	0	7.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$15.77	0.2%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$13.85	0.2%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$13.65	0.2%	0	7.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.55	0.7%	18	28.7	0.63×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$12.47	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$9.83	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$9.77	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$9.67	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$8.90	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$8.70	0.2%	0	14.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$7.79	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 125	$6.67	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 125	$6.67	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.50	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$6.43	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 75	$6.28	0.1%	0	9.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$5.88	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$5.57	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$5.56	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$5.25	0.1%	0	5.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$4.95	0.1%	0	14.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$4.94	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.73	0.1%	0	14.4	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$4.38	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$4.36	0.1%	0	7.2	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$3.52	0.1%	0	14.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$3.50	0.1%	0	14.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$2.92	0.1%	0	14.4	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 75	$2.66	0.1%	0	9.6	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$2.51	0.0%	0	9.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$2.20	0.0%	0	5.7	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$2.08	0.0%	0	5.7	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 125	$2.02	0.0%	0	5.7	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.81	0.1%	41	28.7	1.43×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.22	0.0%	0	14.4	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$1.10	0.0%	0	14.4	0.00×
Sticker \| High Heatsticker · blue	1 in 25	$0.64	0.0%	39	28.7	1.36×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.46	0.0%	28	28.7	0.97×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.46	0.0%	39	28.7	1.36×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.41	0.0%	33	28.7	1.15×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.40	0.0%	31	28.7	1.08×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 25	$0.37	0.0%	23	28.7	0.80×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/wild-west-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldtilo9o90$82.53$7729.36x6d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldJohnny SKINS$82.48$7729.36x6d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold$82.01$7679.35x5d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldPIELMENI$82.01$7679.35x5d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold$81.49$7659.39x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Monster Callweapon · violetKuTaZskins.army$80.80$2.310.03x7m

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldkaCzoR_kill4Fun$80.80$7599.39x10m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkNissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl$80.80$6.320.08x10m

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$80.80$0.400.00x13m

AK-47 | Safety Netweapon · violet$80.80$4.120.05x13m

M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covertgrochalek$80.80$65.440.81x13m

★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$80.80$1762.17x29m

PP-Bizon | Embargoweapon · violet$80.80$4.800.06x29m

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$80.80$0.410.01x29m

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetNinja294 _lt;3$80.80$0.400.00x29m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$80.80	87.50%	54
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$80.83	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$81.33	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$80.57	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$81.40	87.50%	54
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$80.57	87.50%	54
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$80.51	87.50%	54
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$81.49	87.50%	54
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$81.41	87.50%	54
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$80.35	87.49%	54
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$81.41	87.50%	54
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$80.27	87.51%	54
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$80.80	87.50%	54
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$82.01	86.26%	54
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$82.48	87.50%	54
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$82.53	87.50%	54
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$82.01	87.50%	54
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$81.59	87.50%	54
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$82.48	87.50%	54
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$81.59	87.50%	54
2 Nov, 22:28 UTC	$79.26	87.50%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 4.0%covert 19.0%classified 5.6%red 3.0%Ancient 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.0%Mythical 2.3%restricted 15.5%violet 25.0%Legendary 2.8%pink 0.8%#d32ee6 1.8%Classified 1.0%#8847ff 3.1%Restricted 2.0%blue 6.0%mil spec 2.0%gray 4.0%best hit $772 (9.36x)