WILDSHOT

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$3.25

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.84 from 72 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.71%

9,660 openings, odds method

Variance

11.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.22%±20.381,084 openings

7 days

83.43%±7.298,404 openings

30 days

82.71%±6.829,660 openings

since tracking started

82.71%±6.829,660 openings

61.0%82.0%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,084	82.22%±20.4	−0.5σ	odds
7d	8,404	83.43%±7.29	−1.1σ	odds
30d	9,660	82.71%±6.82	−1.3σ	odds
All	9,660	82.71%±6.82	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,661 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 50,000	$2,049	1.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$329	0.8%	0	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$257	0.7%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$212	0.7%	0	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$137	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$131	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$126	0.4%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50,000	$109	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$103	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$75.90	0.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$68.38	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$65.44	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$65.16	0.7%	2	2.9	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$64.44	0.2%	0	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$62.44	0.2%	0	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$56.82	0.2%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$54.96	0.7%	2	3.5	0.58×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,703	$52.59	0.7%	1	3.6	0.28×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$51.04	0.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,143	$45.56	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,143	$44.91	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$42.23	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$40.71	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$39.47	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$39.11	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$38.48	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$38.14	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,263	$38.08	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$37.90	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$37.68	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$31.55	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,167	$30.76	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,370	$26.82	0.7%	7	7.1	0.99×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$23.61	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,515	$18.39	0.4%	0	6.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$15.65	0.3%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$15.51	0.3%	0	4.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 952	$13.65	0.5%	0	10.1	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,222	$13.35	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14,286	$12.88	0.0%	0	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$12.35	0.0%	0	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 826	$11.39	0.5%	0	11.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 84	$9.77	4.1%	0	115.1	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 219	$9.67	1.6%	0	44.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 29	$8.57	10.3%	0	329.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$6.43	7.0%	0	299.8	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$6.03	4.7%	0	215.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 24	$5.95	8.7%	0	399.7	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$5.57	3.0%	0	149.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 113	$4.85	1.5%	0	85.8	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$4.38	4.6%	0	289.8	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$4.36	4.6%	0	292.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$3.66	9.3%	0	699.8	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$3.41	2.2%	0	178.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$2.30	1.7%	0	205.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$1.96	1.8%	0	254.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$1.86	1.9%	0	273.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 126	$1.67	0.5%	0	76.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$1.50	2.0%	0	371.4	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 108	$1.45	0.5%	0	89.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 24	$1.41	2.1%	0	402.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.30	2.2%	0	464.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$1.19	2.3%	0	525.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.19	2.2%	0	513.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 47	$0.83	0.6%	0	204.7	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$0.72	0.6%	0	238.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.47	0.8%	0	453.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.46	0.8%	0	467.8	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$0.46	0.7%	0	445.6	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.44	0.8%	0	474.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.43	0.8%	0	514.1	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.43	0.8%	0	488.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/wildshot, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Retrobutionweapon · violetVanish$3.25$1.580.49x13s

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violet$3.25$0.550.17x32s

M4A1-S | Solitudeweapon · pink$3.25$1.970.61x32s

P90 | Vent Rushweapon · violet$3.25$0.530.16x32s

M4A1-S | Solitudeweapon · pinktivson$3.25$1.970.61x32s

Tec-9 | Avalancheweapon · restricted$3.25$1.610.50x1m

M4A1-S | Solitudeweapon · pink$3.25$1.970.61x1m

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violetSoBoL BuK$3.25$0.550.17x1m

P90 | Vent Rushweapon · violet$3.25$0.530.16x7m

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violet$3.25$0.550.17x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.25	87.50%	72
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$3.25	87.55%	72
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$3.25	87.74%	72
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$3.25	86.93%	72
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.25	87.36%	72
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.25	87.85%	72
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$3.25	87.36%	72
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$3.25	87.85%	72
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$3.25	87.49%	72
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$3.25	87.28%	72
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$3.25	86.93%	72
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.25	87.46%	72
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.25	87.03%	72
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$3.25	87.29%	72
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.25	87.71%	72
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$3.25	87.63%	72
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$3.25	87.15%	72
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$3.25	86.93%	72

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.3%Mythical 12.4%Legendary 5.4%classified 3.2%Ancient 0.1%red 0.1%pink 16.0%restricted 23.1%#8847ff 13.1%#d32ce6 4.2%violet 22.2%best hit —