WTCN

A case on Casehug (CREATORS FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$6.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.69 from 81 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.59%

12.1K openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.47%±6.862,116 openings

7 days

86.00%±3.0710.7K openings

30 days

86.59%±2.8812.1K openings

since tracking started

86.59%±2.8812.1K openings

77.0%84.5%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,116	84.47%±6.86	−0.9σ	odds
7d	10.7K	86.00%±3.07	−0.9σ	odds
30d	12.1K	86.59%±2.88	−0.6σ	odds
All	12.1K	86.59%±2.88	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values81 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 33,333	$567	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$521	0.9%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,882	$345	1.0%	2	2.1	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$219	0.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$210	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$206	0.7%	3	2.4	1.24×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$163	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$93.52	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$90.45	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$76.15	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$71.65	0.4%	0	3.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$69.34	0.4%	0	3.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$66.25	0.4%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 6,667	$58.25	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,041	$54.84	0.5%	0	5.9	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$53.77	0.5%	0	6.1	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,818	$51.50	0.5%	0	6.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 971	$34.82	0.6%	0	12.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 613	$27.68	0.8%	0	19.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 73	$19.74	4.8%	0	166.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$19.30	4.9%	0	174.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$18.02	5.2%	0	199.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 139	$16.91	2.1%	0	87.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$14.29	11.4%	578	551.0	1.05×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$10.43	3.7%	0	244.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$10.08	3.8%	0	262.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$9.92	3.9%	0	270.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$9.36	4.7%	395	348.7	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 126	$9.11	1.3%	0	95.8	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$8.69	1.3%	0	104.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$8.37	1.4%	0	113.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 129	$8.18	1.1%	0	94.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$8.17	1.4%	0	119.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 154	$7.60	0.9%	0	78.6	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 59	$7.31	2.2%	0	205.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 139	$6.81	0.9%	0	87.1	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$6.75	1.7%	0	173.7	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 68	$6.69	1.7%	0	176.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 130	$6.62	0.9%	0	93.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 51	$6.56	2.3%	0	239.1	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$6.26	5.5%	0	604.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$6.07	5.3%	0	602.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 30	$5.77	3.4%	0	407.5	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$5.42	2.9%	0	373.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$5.37	2.6%	0	339.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 191	$5.09	0.5%	0	63.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 179	$4.88	0.5%	0	67.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 190	$4.76	0.4%	0	63.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 189	$4.74	0.4%	0	64.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$4.56	0.4%	0	67.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 178	$4.53	0.4%	0	68.0	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$4.53	0.6%	0	85.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 177	$4.51	0.4%	0	68.4	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$4.48	0.7%	0	107.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 169	$4.42	0.5%	0	71.6	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 127	$4.24	0.6%	0	95.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 575	$2.57	0.1%	0	21.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 372	$1.93	0.1%	0	32.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 368	$1.73	0.1%	0	32.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 203	$1.70	0.1%	0	59.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 267	$1.65	0.1%	0	45.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$1.32	0.2%	0	89.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 120	$0.96	0.1%	0	101.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 120	$0.95	0.1%	0	101.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$0.84	0.2%	0	133.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$0.75	0.2%	0	220.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 85	$0.69	0.1%	0	142.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 63	$0.64	0.2%	0	193.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$0.61	0.2%	0	205.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$0.60	0.2%	0	210.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$0.57	0.2%	0	232.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$0.57	0.2%	0	232.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 53	$0.57	0.2%	0	228.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$0.57	0.3%	0	341.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 59	$0.55	0.2%	0	205.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$0.52	0.2%	0	224.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$0.52	0.3%	0	395.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$0.50	0.2%	0	305.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$0.49	0.2%	0	247.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$0.43	0.2%	0	388.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.40	0.4%	0	604.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/wtcn, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$6.50$53482.10x5d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6.50$34452.96x7d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6.50$33551.52x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pink$6.50$5.600.86x38s

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$6.50$9.361.44x38s

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$6.50$5.910.91x38s

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-Sweapon · violet★H3adshot✈$6.50$0.690.11x38s

AWP | Atherisweapon · restricted$6.50$5.080.78x46s

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$6.50$5.910.91x46s

Glock-18 | Block-18weapon · violet$6.50$0.590.09x46s

Glock-18 | Block-18weapon · violet★H3adshot✈$6.50$0.590.09x46s

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkDragu skins.army$6.50$18.962.92x1m

Glock-18 | Block-18weapon · violetDragu skins.army$6.50$0.590.09x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$6.50	87.50%	81
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$6.50	87.50%	81
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$6.50	87.63%	81
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$6.50	87.20%	81
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$6.50	87.50%	81
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$6.50	87.20%	81
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$6.50	87.50%	81
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.50	87.40%	81
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$6.50	87.44%	81
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$6.50	87.41%	81
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$6.50	87.61%	81
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$6.50	87.56%	81
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.50	87.26%	81
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$6.50	87.43%	81
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.50	87.34%	81
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$6.50	87.47%	81
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$6.50	87.68%	81
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$6.50	87.30%	81

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.2%red 0.4%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 21.3%#d32ce6 0.7%violet 18.1%pink 12.9%uncommon 5.3%Classified 1.2%Legendary 2.4%restricted 16.1%#8847ff 5.7%#d32ee6 3.3%Rare 0.5%Mythical 3.4%milspec 6.8%Restricted 1.6%best hit $534 (82.10x)