WTCN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$89.82

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $78.59 from 81 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.85%

753 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86 openings · below min

7 days

87.83%±13.77587 openings

30 days

88.85%±12.15753 openings

since tracking started

88.85%±12.15753 openings

52.0%88.8%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	86	88.57%±36.0	—	odds
7d	587	87.83%±13.8	+0.0σ	odds
30d	753	88.85%±12.2	+0.2σ	odds
All	753	88.85%±12.2	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values81 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 769 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 28	$589	26.8%	34	27.5	1.24×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 28	$521	23.7%	27	27.5	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 28	$331	15.0%	24	27.5	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$212	3.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$210	3.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$208	9.5%	26	27.5	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 84	$175	2.6%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$93.95	1.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$93.57	1.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$75.96	0.9%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$71.51	0.8%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$65.71	0.7%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$65.16	0.7%	0	6.9	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$57.30	0.9%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$55.91	0.8%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 84	$53.63	0.8%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 84	$48.44	0.7%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 56	$34.36	0.8%	0	13.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 56	$28.27	0.6%	0	13.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$20.53	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$18.75	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$17.12	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 112	$16.91	0.2%	0	6.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$15.10	0.7%	31	27.5	1.13×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$9.87	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$9.83	0.4%	24	27.5	0.87×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$9.81	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$9.70	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$8.80	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$8.68	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$8.51	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$8.40	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 84	$7.99	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 112	$7.97	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$7.46	0.2%	0	13.7	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 84	$6.99	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$6.79	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$6.73	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 112	$6.69	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 56	$6.67	0.2%	0	13.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$6.43	0.1%	0	13.7	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$6.33	0.1%	0	13.7	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 84	$5.78	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$5.57	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$5.12	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 112	$5.10	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$4.99	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 112	$4.90	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$4.80	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 84	$4.76	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$4.67	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$4.61	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$4.57	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$4.45	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 84	$4.38	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$4.36	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$2.60	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$1.90	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$1.90	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 84	$1.70	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$1.67	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$1.35	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$1.15	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$0.96	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$0.83	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$0.72	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.70	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 140	$0.63	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$0.61	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$0.60	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$0.58	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.57	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$0.55	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.55	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$0.55	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.54	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.54	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$0.52	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$0.47	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$0.46	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$0.40	0.0%	0	9.2	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/wtcn-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$90.74$5976.57x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryWhy mad???$91.02$5976.55x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$91.02$5976.55x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryskins.armyTUPTUs.CS2.MEgift$91.02$5976.55x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$91.02$5976.55x7d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$91.07$5966.55x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendarytwitch.tv/agiie$91.08$5966.55x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$91.08$5966.55x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$90.89$5916.50x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$89.35$9.360.10x3h

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$89.35$6.140.07x3h

M4A1-S | Party Animalweapon · pinkjose$89.35$10.640.12x3h

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · red$89.82$1992.21x3h

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$89.82$6.180.07x3h

M4A1-S | Player Twoweapon · redMar_Bat123 OsloRP$89.82$69.580.77x3h

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violet$89.82$0.860.01x4h

USP-S | Silent Shotweapon · blueSchadenfreude$89.82$0.940.01x4h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pink$89.82$6.550.07x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$89.82	87.50%	81
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$90.53	87.50%	81
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$91.07	87.50%	81
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$90.52	87.50%	81
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$91.08	87.50%	81
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$90.89	87.50%	81
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$90.74	87.50%	81
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$90.52	87.50%	81
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$90.89	87.50%	81
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$90.39	87.50%	81
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$90.89	87.50%	81
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$91.09	87.50%	81
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$91.10	87.50%	81
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$90.95	87.50%	81
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$91.02	87.50%	81
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$90.95	87.50%	81
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$91.02	87.50%	81
3 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$91.21	87.50%	81

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 3.6%covert 17.9%red 7.1%rare 2.4%Ancient 1.2%classified 13.4%#d32ce6 0.9%violet 10.1%pink 8.9%uncommon 4.3%Classified 1.8%#8847ff 4.5%restricted 10.0%Legendary 3.6%#d32ee6 3.6%Rare 1.2%Mythical 2.5%milspec 2.4%Restricted 0.7%best hit $597 (6.57x)