5% Knife

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.11

8.22 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $3.70 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.84%

21.5K openings, odds method

Variance

32.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.44%±24.082,127 openings

7 days

81.84%±8.4817.2K openings

30 days

80.84%±7.5821.5K openings

since tracking started

80.82%±7.5821.5K openings

52.5%77.3%102.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.26% – 88.43%, 21,461 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,127	77.44%±24.1	−1.0σ	odds
7d	17.2K	81.84%±8.48	−1.9σ	odds
30d	21.5K	80.84%±7.58	−2.4σ	odds
All	21.5K	80.82%±7.58	−2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100,000	$1,293 2,585 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,191 2,383 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$966 1,931 coins	1.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20,000	$870 1,740 coins	1.2%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 14,286	$618 1,237 coins	1.2%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11,236	$545 1,090 coins	1.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$504 1,008 coins	1.2%	2	1.9	1.03×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$379 757 coins	1.0%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 3,333	$349 698 coins	2.8%	3	6.4	0.47×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$336 672 coins	4.5%	9	10.7	0.84×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$333 666 coins	4.5%	9	10.7	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 2,000	$254 507 coins	3.4%	17	10.7	1.58×
★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,429	$81.41 163 coins	1.5%	9	15.0	0.60×
★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$67.83 136 coins	18.3%	191	214.8	0.89×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 27	$56.72 113 coins	56.8%	764	795.6	0.96×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	95.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	20,478	20410.8	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$4.118.22 coins$8701,740 coins211.6x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.118.22 coins$6181,237 coins150.4x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$4.118.22 coins$5041,008 coins122.6x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$4.118.22 coins$5041,008 coins122.6x7d

★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$4.118.22 coins$379757 coins92.09x5d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$4.118.22 coins$349698 coins84.92x3d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$4.118.22 coins$349698 coins84.92x4d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$4.118.22 coins$349698 coins84.92x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$4.118.22 coins$336672 coins81.70x22h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$4.118.22 coins$336672 coins81.70x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$4.118.22 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00xnow

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffconR$4.118.22 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00xnow

★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertOttoW$4.118.22 coins$56.72113 coins13.80x53m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$4.118.22 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x58m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.11	89.97%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%sunny 0.0%covert knife 1.1%gold 0.1%other 0.1%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit $870 (211.6x)