Baller Knife
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$656.92
1,314 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $591.23 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.26%
104 openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 104 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$6571,314 coins$12.1K24,151 coins18.38x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$6571,314 coins$12.1K24,151 coins18.38x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$6571,314 coins$7,71415,428 coins11.74x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$6571,314 coins$2,6435,286 coins4.02x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6571,314 coins$2,3714,742 coins3.61x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6571,314 coins$2,3714,742 coins3.61x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$6571,314 coins$2,1254,249 coins3.23x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$6571,314 coins$1,9463,893 coins2.96x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$6571,314 coins$1,9463,893 coins2.96x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $657 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%knifes 1.0%legendary 1.0%Covert 1.0%#4b69ff 87.0%best hit $12.1K (18.38x)