Balloon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,914.61

3,829 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,723.15 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.49%

322 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

80.49%±30.06322 openings

30 days

80.49%±30.06322 openings

since tracking started

80.49%±30.06322 openings

-0.5%89.8%180.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	44.63%±134.8	—	odds
7d	322	80.49%±30.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	322	80.49%±30.1	−0.6σ	odds
All	322	80.49%±30.1	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 322 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$112K 223,312 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$26.7K 53,347 coins	7.7%	1	1.6	0.62×
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$25.5K 51,019 coins	7.4%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$18.7K 37,392 coins	21.7%	3	6.4	0.47×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$15.1K 30,112 coins	26.2%	9	9.7	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 29	$10.4K 20,866 coins	21.2%	18	11.3	1.60×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	15.0%	$525 1,051 coins	4.6%	45	48.3	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	15.0%	$401 802 coins	3.5%	36	48.3	0.75×
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	15.0%	$259 519 coins	2.3%	48	48.3	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$151 302 coins	1.3%	54	48.3	1.12×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	15.0%	$101 202 coins	0.9%	59	48.3	1.22×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	15.4%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	48	49.7	0.96×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,9153,829 coins$26.7K53,347 coins13.93x5d

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,9153,829 coins$25.5K51,019 coins13.32x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,9153,829 coins$18.7K37,392 coins9.76x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarydjpeeh$1,9153,829 coins$18.7K37,392 coins9.76x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,9153,829 coins$18.7K37,392 coins9.76x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,9153,829 coins$15.1K30,112 coins7.86x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,9153,829 coins$15.1K30,112 coins7.86x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,9153,829 coins$15.1K30,112 coins7.86x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1,9153,829 coins$401802 coins0.21x27m

★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes$1,9153,829 coins$259519 coins0.14x27m

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,9153,829 coins$151302 coins0.08x27m

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1,9153,829 coins$401802 coins0.21x27m

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,9153,829 coins$101202 coins0.05x27m

★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes$1,9153,829 coins$259519 coins0.14x27m

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,9153,829 coins$151302 coins0.08x27m

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertnigxoo$1,9153,829 coins$101202 coins0.05x27m

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,9153,829 coins$101202 coins0.05x20h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1,9153,829 coins$401802 coins0.21x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,915	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.1%remarkable 0.5%extraordinary 5.0%classified 30.0%covert knife 15.0%knifes 15.0%#4b69ff 15.4%best hit $26.7K (13.93x)