Big Dog

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2,411.99

4,824 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $2,170.78 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.29%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

53.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

46.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

51.5%102.3%153.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 8.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	102.29%±50.0	—	odds
30d	16	102.29%±50.0	—	odds
All	16	102.29%±50.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$112K 223,312 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$36.3K 72,651 coins	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$18.7K 37,392 coins	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$11.7K 23,410 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 400	$8,979 17,957 coins	1.0%	1	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$8,338 16,675 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$7,137 14,274 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$7,082 14,163 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$6,892 13,784 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$6,562 13,124 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$6,389 12,778 coins	0.7%	1	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 400	$6,322 12,643 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	51.0%	$3,377 6,753 coins	79.3%	7	8.2	0.86×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal	10.0%	$1,672 3,343 coins	7.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	17.0%	$68.89 138 coins	0.5%	6	2.7	2.21×
Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	19.4%	$58.94 118 coins	0.5%	1	3.1	0.32×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.