Binge Water

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$33.07

66.13 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $29.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.81%

328 openings, odds method

Variance

7.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.52%±39.02200 openings

7 days

75.38%±32.08296 openings

30 days

71.81%±30.47328 openings

since tracking started

71.81%±30.47328 openings

40.5%80.8%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	200	81.52%±39.0	−0.4σ	odds
7d	296	75.38%±32.1	−0.9σ	odds
30d	328	71.81%±30.5	−1.2σ	odds
All	328	71.81%±30.5	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 328 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$743 1,487 coins	25.0%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$492 984 coins	16.5%	3	3.3	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$259 519 coins	8.7%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$176 352 coins	5.9%	0	3.3	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$111 222 coins	3.7%	4	3.3	1.22×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$108 216 coins	3.6%	1	3.3	0.30×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$101 203 coins	3.4%	3	3.3	0.91×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$87.89 176 coins	3.0%	2	3.3	0.61×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$47.35 94.7 coins	3.2%	6	6.6	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$40.01 80.02 coins	6.7%	24	16.4	1.46×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$18.27 36.53 coins	7.4%	39	39.4	0.99×
MP7 \| Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer	14.0%	$13.66 27.32 coins	6.4%	44	45.9	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	16.0%	$8.20 16.4 coins	4.4%	65	52.5	1.24×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$2.61 5.22 coins	1.4%	45	52.5	0.86×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$1.18 2.35 coins	0.6%	54	49.2	1.10×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer	12.0%	$0.09 0.18 coins	0.0%	34	39.4	0.86×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$33.0766.13 coins$7431,487 coins22.48x5h

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$33.0766.13 coins$7431,487 coins22.48x11h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer$33.0766.13 coins$0.090.18 coins0.00x28m

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$33.0766.13 coins$18.2736.53 coins0.55x28m

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified$33.0766.13 coins$8.2016.4 coins0.25x28m

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer$33.0766.13 coins$0.090.18 coins0.00x28m

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$33.0766.13 coins$1.182.35 coins0.04x28m

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$33.0766.13 coins$2.615.22 coins0.08x28m

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$33.0766.13 coins$1.182.35 coins0.04x28m

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil specRavtok$33.0766.13 coins$1.182.35 coins0.04x28m

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer$33.0766.13 coins$0.090.18 coins0.00x4h

MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer$33.0766.13 coins$13.6627.32 coins0.41x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$33.07	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.0%covert knife 1.0%industrial 5.0%restricted 12.0%consumer 26.0%classified 16.0%mil spec 31.0%best hit $743 (22.48x)