Bulletproof
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$116.50
233 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $104.85 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
39.49%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 15.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $871 1,742 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $385 771 coins | 22.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $247 493 coins | 18.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $125 249 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · SMGs | 10.0% | $99.36 199 coins | 9.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $8.94 17.87 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified | 21.0% | $5.23 10.45 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× |
| PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 21.0% | $0.62 1.24 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $116 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 36.0%restricted 22.0%epic 1.0%#eb4b4b 10.0%SMGs 10.0%#8847ff 21.0%best hit —