Cheapy
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.33
2.66 coins
Advertised RTP
89.69%
EV $1.19 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.91%
10.3K openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$1.332.66 coins$132264 coins99.35x
Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$1.332.66 coins$127254 coins95.63x
Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$1.332.66 coins$127254 coins95.63x
Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$1.332.66 coins$127254 coins95.63x
Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$1.332.66 coins$127254 coins95.63x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.33 | 89.69% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.0%restricted 2.3%Restricted 0.0%classified 2.3%covert 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.5%Rare 1.5%Mil Spec 1.5%Uncommon 1.5%Common 17.5%#4b69ff 36.5%industrial 17.5%consumer 18.0%best hit $132 (99.35x)