Dragon Trigger

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.64

1.27 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $0.57 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.93%

3,607 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.36%±6.331,215 openings

7 days

89.05%±4.013,029 openings

30 days

87.93%±3.683,607 openings

since tracking started

87.93%±3.683,607 openings

80.5%87.5%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,215	87.36%±6.33	−0.8σ	odds
7d	3,029	89.05%±4.01	−0.5σ	odds
30d	3,607	87.93%±3.68	−1.1σ	odds
All	3,607	87.93%±3.68	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,639 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$4.88 9.75 coins	8.5%	27	36.4	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$4.53 9.06 coins	7.9%	37	36.4	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$1.69 3.37 coins	8.8%	114	109.2	1.04×
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 33	$1.52 3.03 coins	8.0%	101	109.2	0.93×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.09 2.17 coins	7.6%	150	145.6	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.06 2.11 coins	7.4%	135	145.6	0.93×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.01 2.02 coins	7.1%	150	145.6	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 20	$0.68 1.36 coins	6.0%	184	182.0	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.64 1.27 coins	5.6%	182	182.0	1.00×
P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	10.0%	$0.52 1.04 coins	9.1%	351	363.9	0.96×
AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	10.0%	$0.33 0.65 coins	5.7%	373	363.9	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Factory New)weapon · Common	10.0%	$0.31 0.62 coins	5.4%	354	363.9	0.97×
P250 \| Drought (Factory New)weapon · Common	10.0%	$0.28 0.55 coins	4.8%	374	363.9	1.03×
P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.24 0.48 coins	4.2%	368	363.9	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	10.0%	$0.22 0.44 coins	3.9%	360	363.9	0.99×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	379	363.9	1.04×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · industrial$0.641.27 coins$0.240.48 coins0.38x36m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.641.27 coins$0.310.62 coins0.49x36m

AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$0.641.27 coins$0.330.65 coins0.51x36m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.641.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x36m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.641.27 coins$0.310.62 coins0.49x36m

AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$0.641.27 coins$0.330.65 coins0.51x36m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$0.641.27 coins$0.641.27 coins1.00x36m

P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · industrial$0.641.27 coins$0.240.48 coins0.38x37m

AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$0.641.27 coins$0.330.65 coins0.51x37m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.64	89.97%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.0%covert 1.0%Legendary 3.0%#777777 3.0%mil spec 4.0%#8847ff 8.0%Mil Spec 5.0%restricted 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%gray 10.0%Common 20.0%industrial 10.0%grey 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit —