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FlashBang

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.61
33.22 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.95 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
117.79%
1,090 openings, odds method
Variance
29.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 72
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
106.06%±35.83870 openings
30 days
117.79%±32.011,090 openings
since tracking started
117.79%±32.011,090 openings
69.5%286.0%502.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h24286.11%±215.7—odds
7d870106.06%±35.8+0.9σodds
30d1,090117.79%±32.0+1.7σodds
All1,090117.79%±32.0+1.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,090 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 6,667$2,877 5,754 coins2.9%10.2—
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 5,714$2,112 4,224 coins2.5%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 2,000$1,241 2,481 coins4.1%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 2,000$1,201 2,403 coins4.0%10.5—
★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$1,125 2,251 coins3.8%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 2,000$1,119 2,238 coins3.7%20.5—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1,089 2,177 coins3.6%10.5—
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$657 1,315 coins4.4%11.10.92×
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$438 876 coins29.3%1510.91.38×
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$151 302 coins20.2%2321.81.06×
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 24$37.48 74.96 coins10.3%4144.70.92×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 15$14.08 28.16 coins6.3%6472.60.88×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 14$2.69 5.38 coins1.3%7076.30.92×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical21.0%$1.97 3.94 coins2.8%232228.91.01×
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted12.9%$0.71 1.42 coins0.6%137140.10.98×
Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec45.0%$0.07 0.15 coins0.2%502490.51.02×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$16.6133.22 coins$2,8775,754 coins173.2x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$16.6133.22 coins$1,2012,403 coins72.33x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$16.6133.22 coins$1,1192,238 coins67.38x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$16.6133.22 coins$1,1192,238 coins67.38x
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$16.6133.22 coins$1,0892,177 coins65.54x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.6133.22 coins$6571,315 coins39.58x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$16.6133.22 coins$0.070.15 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$16.6133.22 coins$0.070.15 coins0.00x
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red$16.6133.22 coins$14.0828.16 coins0.85x
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.6133.22 coins$0.711.42 coins0.04x
M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$16.6133.22 coins$1.973.94 coins0.12x
Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMoon1025$16.6133.22 coins$0.070.15 coins0.00x
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.6133.22 coins$0.711.42 coins0.04x
Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$16.6133.22 coins$0.070.15 coins0.00x
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.6133.22 coins$0.711.42 coins0.04x
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$16.6133.22 coins$438876 coins26.38x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$16.6190.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert 1.3%classified 2.0%restricted 24.0%red 6.7%Mythical 21.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit $2,877 (173.2x)