FULL OF BLOOD

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4,800.82

9,602 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4,320.74 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.91%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

42.0%88.3%134.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	88.21%±45.7	—	odds
7d	16	86.91%±32.3	—	odds
30d	16	86.91%±32.3	—	odds
All	16	86.91%±32.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$217K 434,217 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$112K 223,312 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$73.5K 147,047 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$72.4K 144,822 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$52.4K 104,780 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$41.2K 82,490 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$36.5K 72,902 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$36.3K 72,651 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$31.6K 63,128 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$12.1K 24,151 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$10.6K 21,246 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$10.4K 20,866 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,925 19,850 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$9,900 19,800 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,847 19,695 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$9,483 18,967 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,398 18,795 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$9,356 18,711 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$8,862 17,724 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl	1 in 11	$5,893 11,786 coins	12.3%	3	1.4	2.08×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 11	$5,803 11,607 coins	12.1%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 11	$5,754 11,508 coins	12.0%	2	1.4	1.39×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11	$4,962 9,924 coins	10.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 11	$4,425 8,850 coins	9.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11	$4,209 8,418 coins	8.8%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11	$4,097 8,194 coins	8.5%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 11	$3,746 7,492 coins	7.8%	3	1.4	2.08×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 11	$3,644 7,288 coins	7.6%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 11	$3,617 7,234 coins	7.5%	1	1.4	0.69×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$1.21 2.41 coins	0.0%	2	1.4	1.40×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 23:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$4,8019,602 coins$5,89311,786 coins1.23x5h

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$4,8019,602 coins$5,80311,607 coins1.21x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$4,8019,602 coins$5,75411,508 coins1.20x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$4,8019,602 coins$4,9629,924 coins1.03x5h

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$4,8019,602 coins$4,2098,418 coins0.88x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertFilthyDaDegen$4,8019,602 coins$4,0978,194 coins0.85x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireHAL$4,8019,602 coins$3,7467,492 coins0.78x5h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$4,8019,602 coins$4,9629,924 coins1.03x5h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$4,8019,602 coins$5,89311,786 coins1.23x5h

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$4,8019,602 coins$3,7467,492 coins0.78x5h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$4,8019,602 coins$1.212.41 coins0.00x5h

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$4,8019,602 coins$3,7467,492 coins0.78x5h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$4,8019,602 coins$5,89311,786 coins1.23x5h

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireHAL$4,8019,602 coins$3,7467,492 coins0.78x5h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$4,8019,602 coins$1.212.41 coins0.00x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$4,8019,602 coins$3,6177,234 coins0.75x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4,801	90.00%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 72.9%legendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.1%Knives 9.0%knifes 9.0%Rare 8.9%best hit $5,893 (1.23x)