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Gem Talon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$20.73
41.46 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $18.66 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.27%
3,470 openings, odds method
Variance
84.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
273 openings · below min
7 days
67.98%±32.533,082 openings
30 days
73.27%±30.663,470 openings
since tracking started
73.27%±30.663,470 openings
-0.5%66.0%132.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27322.51%±109.3—odds
7d3,08267.98%±32.5−1.3σodds
30d3,47073.27%±30.7−1.1σodds
All3,47073.27%±30.7−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,470 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$3,746 7,492 coins20.1%43.51.15×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$3,644 7,288 coins19.5%03.50.00×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$2,934 5,868 coins15.7%33.50.86×
★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 1,000$457 914 coins2.5%53.51.44×
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$369 737 coins4.0%36.90.43×
★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$233 465 coins2.5%86.91.15×
★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 250$181 362 coins3.9%1713.91.22×
★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 250$175 350 coins3.8%1413.91.01×
P250 | Digital Architect (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 42$33.09 66.18 coins4.3%7983.30.95×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$22.31 44.61 coins6.0%190173.51.10×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$19.18 38.36 coins5.1%155173.50.89×
P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$5.88 11.75 coins3.1%334347.00.96×
P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer10.0%$4.24 8.48 coins2.3%378347.01.09×
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet20.0%$2.83 5.65 coins3.0%696694.01.00×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted24.0%$2.24 4.47 coins2.9%828832.80.99×
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff22.0%$1.22 2.44 coins1.4%756763.40.99×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$20.7341.46 coins$3,7467,492 coins180.7x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$20.7341.46 coins$3,7467,492 coins180.7x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$20.7341.46 coins$3,7467,492 coins180.7x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$20.7341.46 coins$3,7467,492 coins180.7x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$20.7341.46 coins$2,9345,868 coins141.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$20.7341.46 coins$2,9345,868 coins141.5x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$20.7341.46 coins$2,9345,868 coins141.5x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet$20.7341.46 coins$2.835.65 coins0.14x
P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer$20.7341.46 coins$4.248.48 coins0.20x
P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer$20.7341.46 coins$4.248.48 coins0.20x
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffMoon1025$20.7341.46 coins$1.222.44 coins0.06x
P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer$20.7341.46 coins$4.248.48 coins0.20x
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert$20.7341.46 coins$22.3144.61 coins1.08x
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet$20.7341.46 coins$2.835.65 coins0.14x
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$20.7341.46 coins$1.222.44 coins0.06x
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet$20.7341.46 coins$2.835.65 coins0.14x
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · coverttweedy0240$20.7341.46 coins$22.3144.61 coins1.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$20.7390.01%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.7%gold 0.1%Covert 0.8%restricted 36.4%mil spec 5.0%consumer 10.0%violet 20.0%#8847ff 22.0%best hit $3,746 (180.7x)