HeartBreaker
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$96.14
192 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $86.52 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.90%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertfoul$96.14192 coins$322644 coins3.35x
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfoul$96.14192 coins$37.4874.96 coins0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.14 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%legendary 1.0%other 1.0%Immortal 5.0%mil spec 5.0%Covert 5.0%restricted 20.0%classified 43.0%best hit —