High-Rise

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$11.02
22.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $9.91 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.75%
4,624 openings, odds method
Variance
61.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
70.28%±79.92367 openings
7 days
100.88%±25.363,644 openings
30 days
96.75%±22.524,624 openings
since tracking started
96.75%±22.524,624 openings
-0.5%75.3%151.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h36770.28%±79.9−0.5σodds
7d3,644100.88%±25.4+0.8σodds
30d4,62496.75%±22.5+0.6σodds
All4,62496.75%±22.5+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,624 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$6,181 12,362 coins6.2%10.5—
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$2,441 4,881 coins4.9%20.9—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,333$1,371 2,743 coins4.2%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1,036 2,071 coins4.2%01.80.00×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 2,000$758 1,515 coins3.8%22.30.87×
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 2,000$525 1,051 coins2.7%02.30.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic1 in 1,000$373 745 coins3.8%54.61.08×
Souvenir FAMAS | Colony (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 1,000$310 620 coins3.1%64.61.30×
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$266 531 coins2.7%44.60.87×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 400$201 402 coins5.1%1311.61.12×
Souvenir P90 | Run and Hide (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 200$166 333 coins8.4%2323.10.99×
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 133$151 302 coins11.4%4434.71.27×
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE61 in 100$128 256 coins12.9%5246.21.12×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 100$104 208 coins10.5%4746.21.02×
MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$76.16 152 coins7.7%5146.21.10×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$50.58 101 coins5.1%3746.20.80×
P90 | Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 20$2.61 5.21 coins1.3%228231.20.99×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue10.0%$0.72 1.45 coins0.7%466462.41.01×
P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare10.0%$0.53 1.06 coins0.5%432462.40.93×
M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec12.0%$0.25 0.5 coins0.3%553554.91.00×
Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec12.0%$0.20 0.39 coins0.2%529554.90.95×
P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)weapon · Rare15.0%$0.10 0.21 coins0.2%742693.61.07×
G3SG1 | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial15.0%$0.06 0.11 coins0.1%681693.60.98×
Negev | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common15.0%$0.03 0.05 coins0.0%706693.61.02×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$11.0222.03 coins$6,18112,362 coins561.2x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$11.0222.03 coins$2,4414,881 coins221.6x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$11.0222.03 coins$2,4414,881 coins221.6x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$11.0222.03 coins$7581,515 coins68.79x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b$11.0222.03 coins$7581,515 coins68.79x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$11.0222.03 coins$0.200.39 coins0.02x
M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec$11.0222.03 coins$0.250.5 coins0.02x
G3SG1 | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$11.0222.03 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert$11.0222.03 coins$50.58101 coins4.59x
P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)weapon · Rare$11.0222.03 coins$0.100.21 coins0.01x
P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare$11.0222.03 coins$0.531.06 coins0.05x
Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$11.0222.03 coins$0.200.39 coins0.02x
M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspecBG2x$11.0222.03 coins$0.250.5 coins0.02x
Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$11.0222.03 coins$0.200.39 coins0.02x
Negev | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common$11.0222.03 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$11.0289.98%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.4%classified 1.4%#eb4b4b 0.1%epic 0.1%other 0.1%#D32CE6 1.0%Classified 1.0%mil spec 13.0%consumer 5.0%blue 10.0%Rare 25.0%milspec 12.0%industrial 15.0%Common 15.0%best hit $6,181 (561.2x)