Price
$11.02
22.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $9.91 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.75%
4,624 openings, odds method
Variance
61.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,624 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$11.0222.03 coins$6,18112,362 coins561.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.02 | 89.98% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%classified 1.4%#eb4b4b 0.1%epic 0.1%other 0.1%#D32CE6 1.0%Classified 1.0%mil spec 13.0%consumer 5.0%blue 10.0%Rare 25.0%milspec 12.0%industrial 15.0%Common 15.0%best hit $6,181 (561.2x)