Highroller

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,464.05

2,928 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,317.64 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.25%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

5.5%84.2%163.0%

Small sample. 8 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	84.25%±78.1	—	odds
30d	8	84.25%±78.1	—	odds
All	8	84.25%±78.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$6,892 13,784 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$5,893 11,786 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$5,513 11,026 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$4,962 9,924 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 12	$4,761 9,523 coins	30.0%	1	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 12	$3,746 7,492 coins	23.6%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 12	$3,498 6,995 coins	22.0%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$1,433 2,866 coins	9.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 12	$667 1,334 coins	4.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 12	$658 1,315 coins	4.1%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 12	$307 614 coins	1.9%	1	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 12	$175 350 coins	1.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 12	$150 300 coins	0.9%	1	0.7	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 12	$97.20 194 coins	0.6%	2	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$51.39 103 coins	0.3%	1	0.7	—
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 12	$51.37 103 coins	0.3%	0	0.7	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$1,4642,928 coins$4,7619,523 coins3.25x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,4642,928 coins$3,7467,492 coins2.56x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,4642,928 coins$6581,315 coins0.45x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$1,4642,928 coins$4,7619,523 coins3.25x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,4642,928 coins$3,7467,492 coins2.56x1d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertJohnDoe77$1,4642,928 coins$307614 coins0.21x1d

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,4642,928 coins$51.39103 coins0.04x1d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$1,4642,928 coins$97.20194 coins0.07x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,4642,928 coins$6581,315 coins0.45x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold$1,4642,928 coins$150300 coins0.10x1d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$1,4642,928 coins$97.20194 coins0.07x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,464	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.7%Knives 0.1%extraordinary 8.4%contraband 8.3%remarkable 8.3%Covert 8.3%gold 8.3%Classified 8.3%classified 8.3%best hit $4,761 (3.25x)