MAX WYN

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$78.28

157 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $70.45 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.60%

3,876 openings, odds method

Variance

26.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96 openings · below min

7 days

90.77%±17.443,362 openings

30 days

90.60%±16.243,876 openings

since tracking started

90.60%±16.243,876 openings

-0.5%65.8%132.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	96	28.17%±103.2	—	odds
7d	3,362	90.77%±17.4	+0.1σ	odds
30d	3,876	90.60%±16.2	+0.1σ	odds
All	3,876	90.60%±16.2	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,900 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000,000	$52.4K 104,780 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$15.1K 30,112 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100,000	$10.6K 21,246 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$9,318 18,637 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$5,513 11,026 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 118	$3,746 7,492 coins	45.1%	34	33.1	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 681	$2,441 4,881 coins	5.1%	7	5.7	1.22×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$1,796 3,591 coins	12.7%	17	19.5	0.87×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$1,396 2,792 coins	9.9%	20	19.5	1.03×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$721 1,443 coins	10.2%	37	39.0	0.95×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$220 440 coins	9.4%	132	117.0	1.13×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$89.12 178 coins	5.1%	171	156.0	1.10×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$6.56 13.11 coins	1.4%	581	585.0	0.99×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	25.0%	$1.14 2.27 coins	0.4%	953	975.0	0.98×
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	25.0%	$0.02 0.04 coins	0.0%	1,011	975.0	1.04×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	937	975.0	0.96×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x2d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x4d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphireprudent$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$78.28157 coins$3,7467,492 coins47.85x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$78.28157 coins$6.5613.11 coins0.08x1h

P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$78.28157 coins$0.020.04 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$78.28157 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$78.28157 coins$6.5613.11 coins0.08x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$78.28157 coins$1.142.27 coins0.01x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerprudent$78.28157 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$78.28157 coins$6.5613.11 coins0.08x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$78.28157 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$78.28157 coins$1.142.27 coins0.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$78.28	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%extraordinary 3.0%covert 6.9%classified 0.1%mil spec 15.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%#4b69ff 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit $3,746 (47.85x)