Mixy
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.35
26.69 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.01 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.26%
5,344 openings, odds method
Variance
25.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,344 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$13.3526.69 coins$1,1292,258 coins84.60x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertfortune$13.3526.69 coins$1,0152,029 coins76.03x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$13.3526.69 coins$1,0152,029 coins76.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.35 | 89.99% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 21.0%covert 0.5%Covert 0.1%legendary 0.1%#D32CE6 0.1%extraordinary 3.0%Knives 0.1%gold 1.0%mil spec 10.0%#87c7ff 10.0%industrial 10.0%restricted 21.0%Consumer Grade 23.3%best hit $1,263 (94.66x)