Neon Protocol
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.62
45.24 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $20.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.83%
74 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3 | 1 in 40 | $162 324 coins | 19.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 40 | $155 309 coins | 19.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $151 302 coins | 18.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.16× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $59.61 119 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mythical | 1 in 25 | $54.19 108 coins | 10.6% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $52.31 105 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $50.13 100 coins | 9.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 76.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 53 | 56.6 | 0.94× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3$22.6245.24 coins$162324 coins7.15x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$22.6245.24 coins$155309 coins6.84x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMoon1025$22.6245.24 coins$155309 coins6.84x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$22.6245.24 coins$50.13100 coins2.22x
Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New)weapon · consumerDemonDeeeeek$22.6245.24 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.62 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 2.5%covert 6.5%classified 6.5%Mythical 4.0%Industrial Grade 4.0%consumer 76.5%best hit —