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Never Lucky

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$7.89
15.78 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $7.10 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.54%
25.4K openings, odds method
Variance
575.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,575
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
5,865 openings · below min
7 days
96.79%±34.5218.5K openings
30 days
89.54%±29.5225.4K openings
since tracking started
89.54%±29.5225.4K openings
59.5%139.3%219.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5,865157.07%±61.4—odds
7d18.5K96.79%±34.5+0.4σodds
30d25.4K89.54%±29.5−0.0σodds
All25.4K89.54%±29.5−0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 100,000$36.3K 72,651 coins5.1%00.3—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 8,000$7,137 14,274 coins12.6%23.20.63×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd7001 in 8,000$6,234 12,468 coins11.0%23.20.63×
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 8,000$6,222 12,443 coins11.0%53.21.58×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 4,000$3,746 7,492 coins13.2%86.31.26×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 4,000$1,551 3,102 coins5.5%86.31.26×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife1 in 4,000$1,551 3,102 coins5.5%46.30.63×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 4,000$1,520 3,040 coins5.4%76.31.10×
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 4,000$1,296 2,593 coins4.6%96.31.42×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 4,000$1,271 2,542 coins4.5%56.30.79×
Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$329 658 coins4.6%3625.41.42×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 1,000$329 657 coins4.6%2625.41.02×
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$327 655 coins4.6%2525.40.99×
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$308 617 coins4.3%2625.41.02×
Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,000$253 506 coins3.6%2925.41.14×
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer99.3%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.1%25,18125198.31.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.8915.78 coins$7,13714,274 coins904.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBG2x$7.8915.78 coins$7,13714,274 coins904.6x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$7.8915.78 coins$6,23412,468 coins790.1x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$7.8915.78 coins$6,23412,468 coins790.1x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.8915.78 coins$6,22212,443 coins788.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.8915.78 coins$6,22212,443 coins788.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.8915.78 coins$6,22212,443 coins788.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$7.8915.78 coins$6,22212,443 coins788.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarycherrylea$7.8915.78 coins$6,22212,443 coins788.6x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$7.8915.78 coins$3,7467,492 coins474.8x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumerFilthyDaDegen$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$7.8915.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$7.8989.95%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.3%other 0.0%classified 0.1%restricted 0.1%#4b69ff 0.1%consumer 99.3%best hit $7,137 (904.6x)