One Tap
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.67
5.34 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $2.40 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.47%
4,220 openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,220 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $151 302 coins | 9.4% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.42× |
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 40 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 31.3% | 80 | 105.5 | 0.76× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 40 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 26.2% | 100 | 105.5 | 0.95× |
| Five-SeveN | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 40 | $20.14 40.27 coins | 21.0% | 94 | 105.5 | 0.89× |
| G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 12.3% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 5.2% | 509 | 521.2 | 0.98× |
| UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.65 1.3 coins | 5.4% | 860 | 844.0 | 1.02× |
| SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 0.8% | 857 | 844.0 | 1.02× |
| FAMAS | Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.6% | 874 | 844.0 | 1.04× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 837 | 844.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCupcake$2.675.34 coins$151302 coins56.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.67 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%#8847ff 2.5%Rare 2.5%mil spec 34.9%#4b69ff 40.0%blue 20.0%best hit $151 (56.54x)