Oracle
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$409.98
820 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $368.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.39%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire | 1 in 200 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 200 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 100 | $2,469 4,937 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $2,109 4,219 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 50 | $1,571 3,142 coins | 8.5% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.50× |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 33 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 10.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 90.0% | $151 302 coins | 36.8% | 70 | 72.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$410820 coins$9,48318,967 coins23.13x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$410820 coins$2,4694,937 coins6.02x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$410820 coins$2,4694,937 coins6.02x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$410820 coins$1,5713,142 coins3.83x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$410820 coins$1,5713,142 coins3.83x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$410820 coins$1,5713,142 coins3.83x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$410820 coins$1,5713,142 coins3.83x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$410820 coins$9,48318,967 coins23.13x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$410820 coins$2,4694,937 coins6.02x
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedBigNIg2000$410820 coins$151302 coins0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $410 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.5%covert 3.5%legendary 3.0%high 3.0%classified 90.0%best hit $9,483 (23.13x)