Shock
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$457.35
915 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $411.61 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.65%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$457915 coins$3,6177,234 coins7.91x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$457915 coins$1,1382,277 coins2.49x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$457915 coins$5541,109 coins1.21x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$457915 coins$5541,109 coins1.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $457 | 90.00% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.8%extraordinary 0.5%Covert 0.5%legendary 7.0%sunny 6.0%Knives 5.0%industrial 10.0%restricted 5.0%milspec 43.2%best hit $3,617 (7.91x)