Spin Bot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.30
60.59 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.26 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.50%
255 openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 255 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$30.3060.59 coins$7211,442 coins23.80x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.30 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.9%other 6.8%classified 8.0%restricted 2.5%Restricted 4.0%pink 10.0%milspec 50.8%best hit $721 (23.80x)