Stainy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.09

48.18 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $21.68 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.08%

74 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

42 openings · below min

30 days

74 openings · below min

since tracking started

74 openings · below min

71.5%125.3%179.0%

Small sample. 74 openings and 12.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	42	134.67%±43.7	—	odds
30d	74	105.08%±32.9	—	odds
All	74	105.08%±32.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$760 1,520 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$612 1,223 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$379 759 coins	0.9%	1	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$229 457 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 12	$76.52 153 coins	29.3%	5	6.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 12	$59.52 119 coins	22.8%	5	6.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 12	$55.91 112 coins	21.4%	8	6.1	1.30×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$23.04 46.07 coins	8.8%	5	6.1	0.81×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$10.87 21.74 coins	4.2%	10	6.1	1.63×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$10.25 20.5 coins	3.9%	8	6.1	1.30×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$4.88 9.76 coins	1.9%	4	6.1	0.65×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 12	$2.72 5.44 coins	1.0%	4	6.1	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 12	$2.39 4.77 coins	0.9%	5	6.1	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.56 3.12 coins	0.6%	4	6.1	0.65×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.81 1.61 coins	0.3%	11	6.1	1.79×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.79 1.57 coins	0.3%	4	6.3	0.64×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold$24.0948.18 coins$76.52153 coins3.18x1d

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$24.0948.18 coins$2.725.44 coins0.11x1d

★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold$24.0948.18 coins$76.52153 coins3.18x1d

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classifiedDemonDeeeeek$24.0948.18 coins$10.2520.5 coins0.43x1d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$24.0948.18 coins$59.52119 coins2.47x1d

SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$24.0948.18 coins$10.8721.74 coins0.45x1d

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6$24.0948.18 coins$55.91112 coins2.32x1d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$24.0948.18 coins$59.52119 coins2.47x1d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Phase 4$24.0948.18 coins$379759 coins15.74x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$24.09	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 8.3%covert 8.3%other 0.1%covert knife 0.1%Ancient 8.3%#d32ee6 16.6%classified 16.6%mil spec 8.3%Legendary 8.3%restricted 25.1%best hit —