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Surfer

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$13.41
26.81 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $12.07 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.56%
2,177 openings, odds method
Variance
23.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
69.39%±46.13416 openings
7 days
91.07%±20.692,067 openings
30 days
98.56%±20.162,177 openings
since tracking started
98.56%±20.162,177 openings
22.5%71.0%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h41669.39%±46.1−0.9σodds
7d2,06791.07%±20.7+0.1σodds
30d2,17798.56%±20.2+0.8σodds
All2,17798.56%±20.2+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,177 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 12,500$2,877 5,754 coins1.9%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 10,000$2,415 4,830 coins2.0%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 4,545$1,701 3,402 coins3.1%10.5—
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 3,333$1,071 2,142 coins2.7%10.7—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 2,222$816 1,631 coins3.0%31.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 1,961$772 1,544 coins3.3%01.10.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 1,502$618 1,237 coins3.4%11.40.69×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$451 903 coins3.7%22.20.92×
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 400$333 666 coins6.9%55.40.92×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 200$227 453 coins9.4%710.90.64×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 111$161 323 coins12.0%2619.61.33×
★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 67$89.53 179 coins11.1%2532.70.77×
Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer1 in 33$56.39 113 coins14.0%6965.31.06×
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20$12.09 24.18 coins5.0%101108.90.93×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified12.0%$5.51 11.01 coins5.5%252261.20.96×
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted76.5%$2.04 4.07 coins12.9%1,6831665.81.01×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$13.4126.81 coins$2,4154,830 coins180.1x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$13.4126.81 coins$1,7013,402 coins126.9x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$13.4126.81 coins$1,0712,142 coins79.89x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$13.4126.81 coins$8161,631 coins60.85x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$13.4126.81 coins$8161,631 coins60.85x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$13.4126.81 coins$8161,631 coins60.85x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$13.4126.81 coins$6181,237 coins46.13x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedfortune$13.4126.81 coins$161323 coins12.03x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.4126.81 coins$2.044.07 coins0.15x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$13.4190.01%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%covert 5.4%epic 0.0%covert knife 2.1%classified 12.9%consumer 3.0%restricted 76.5%best hit $2,415 (180.1x)