Tank
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.76
31.52 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.18 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.04%
458 openings, odds method
Variance
19.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 60
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$15.7631.52 coins$7511,501 coins47.62x
★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$15.7631.52 coins$6961,392 coins44.16x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.76 | 89.98% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%other 0.1%extraordinary 0.4%Rifles 0.2%covert knife 0.4%mil spec 7.9%industrial 3.3%Common 31.0%consumer 55.7%best hit $751 (47.62x)