Tourist
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.72
51.43 coins
Advertised RTP
89.00%
EV $22.89 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.85%
117 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 117 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $454 907 coins | 39.6% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $242 484 coins | 21.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $145 289 coins | 19.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 33 | $68.22 136 coins | 8.9% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.71× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $19.95 39.9 coins | 4.4% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.37× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $11.04 22.07 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 2.2% | 13 | 11.7 | 1.11× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 70.0% | $0.76 1.52 coins | 2.3% | 80 | 81.9 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$25.7251.43 coins$68.22136 coins2.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.72 | 89.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 82.0%Consumer Grade 3.0%restricted 15.0%best hit —