Weld

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$144.20

288 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $129.77 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

66.87%

528 openings, odds method

Variance

10.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

69.05%±27.83496 openings

30 days

66.87%±26.97528 openings

since tracking started

66.87%±26.97528 openings

-0.5%79.5%159.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	3.92%±154.9	—	odds
7d	496	69.05%±27.8	−1.5σ	odds
30d	528	66.87%±27.0	−1.7σ	odds
All	528	66.87%±27.0	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 528 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$6,222 12,443 coins	4.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$4,806 9,611 coins	11.1%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$3,195 6,389 coins	12.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$1,252 2,504 coins	7.7%	3	4.2	0.71×
Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 125	$1,250 2,500 coins	7.7%	3	4.2	0.71×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$956 1,912 coins	7.4%	5	5.3	0.95×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$935 1,870 coins	10.8%	9	7.9	1.14×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 59	$630 1,260 coins	8.2%	6	9.0	0.67×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$455 910 coins	7.0%	9	10.6	0.85×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$329 658 coins	5.1%	16	10.6	1.52×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 50	$314 628 coins	4.8%	11	10.6	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$306 612 coins	4.7%	12	10.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$223 446 coins	3.4%	8	10.6	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$151 302 coins	2.3%	11	10.6	1.04×
P2000 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$25.74 51.47 coins	2.0%	51	52.8	0.97×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	71.3%	$1.02 2.04 coins	0.6%	383	376.5	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144288 coins$4,8069,611 coins33.33x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144288 coins$1,2522,504 coins8.68x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$144288 coins$1,2522,504 coins8.68x6d

Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$144288 coins$1,2502,500 coins8.67x1d

Sticker | mir (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$144288 coins$1,2502,500 coins8.67x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$144288 coins$9561,912 coins6.63x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$144288 coins$1.022.04 coins0.01x13h

P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$144288 coins$25.7451.47 coins0.18x13h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$144288 coins$1.022.04 coins0.01x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$144	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 5.0%covert 3.7%Covert 2.0%restricted 4.0%sunny 2.0%classified 2.0%mil spec 81.3%best hit $4,806 (33.33x)