Wings
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,288.54
10,577 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4,759.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.28%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 100 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 33 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 33.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 26.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 33 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 19.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 33 | $8,862 17,724 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 25.0% | $4.97 9.94 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.75× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $4.79 9.57 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 37.0% | $0.49 0.99 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$5,28910,577 coins$52.4K104,780 coins9.91x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$5,28910,577 coins$31.6K63,128 coins5.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$5,28910,577 coins$52.4K104,780 coins9.91x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$5,28910,577 coins$31.6K63,128 coins5.97x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,289 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%remarkable 6.0%covert 31.0%Legendary 25.0%classified 37.0%best hit $52.4K (9.91x)