Zen

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.36

52.72 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $23.72 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.04%

1,133 openings, odds method

Variance

33.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

82.83%±34.791,063 openings

30 days

81.04%±33.691,133 openings

since tracking started

81.04%±33.691,133 openings

-0.5%243.5%487.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	85.67%±401.0	—	odds
7d	1,063	82.83%±34.8	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,133	81.04%±33.7	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,133	81.04%±33.7	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,133 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$31.6K 63,128 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 50,000	$12.1K 24,151 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$2,415 4,830 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,816 3,632 coins	7.7%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby	1 in 164	$1,011 2,022 coins	26.0%	6	6.9	0.87×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 29	$127 254 coins	18.7%	31	39.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$40.95 81.9 coins	15.5%	97	102.0	0.95×
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$23.38 46.76 coins	14.8%	185	169.9	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$18.27 36.53 coins	5.0%	90	73.6	1.22×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 16	$10.56 21.12 coins	2.8%	74	71.2	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Indigo (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$8.06 16.12 coins	2.0%	68	68.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.00 12 coins	1.5%	70	68.0	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$5.04 10.08 coins	1.3%	75	68.0	1.10×
Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$2.60 5.19 coins	0.7%	66	68.0	0.97×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$1.01 2.02 coins	0.6%	143	169.9	0.84×
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	227	226.6	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$26.3652.72 coins$1,8163,632 coins68.89x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby$26.3652.72 coins$1,0112,022 coins38.36x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby$26.3652.72 coins$1,0112,022 coins38.36x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$26.3652.72 coins$6.0012 coins0.23x3h

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$26.3652.72 coins$18.2736.53 coins0.69x3h

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$26.3652.72 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$26.3652.72 coins$5.0410.08 coins0.19x3h

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$26.3652.72 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$26.3652.72 coins$23.3846.76 coins0.89x3h

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert$26.3652.72 coins$127254 coins4.82x3h

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil specinsane67$26.3652.72 coins$1.012.02 coins0.04x3h

AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$26.3652.72 coins$23.3846.76 coins0.89x1d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.3652.72 coins$40.9581.9 coins1.55x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.36	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%covert 3.6%#EB4B4B 0.6%classified 15.0%mil spec 30.0%restricted 12.5%Ancient 6.3%Common 6.0%consumer 6.0%milspec 20.0%best hit $1,816 (68.89x)