100% DOPPLER
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$219.61
338 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $197.64 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.05%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 23.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $1,021 1,571 gems | 5.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $589 905 gems | 6.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 14 | $444 682 gems | 15.7% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $339 522 gems | 17.2% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $278 428 gems | 14.1% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $222 341 gems | 11.2% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $153 236 gems | 7.7% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 10.0% | $146 224 gems | 7.4% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 10.0% | $92.65 143 gems | 4.7% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 10.0% | $74.70 115 gems | 3.8% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 20.0% | $70.27 108 gems | 7.1% | 18 | 15.6 | 1.15× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $220 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 68.0%Covert 22.0%#ffd700 10.0%best hit $589 (2.68x)