2.5% Dream Knife

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$28.79
44.3 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
179.71%
158 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
100 openings · below min
7 days
158 openings · below min
30 days
158 openings · below min
since tracking started
158 openings · below min
-0.5%169.5%339.5%

Small sample. 158 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10097.34%±135.6—sample
7d158179.71%±159.4—sample
30d158179.71%±159.4—sample
All158179.71%±159.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald$28.7944.3 gems$2,2193,414 gems77.07x
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$28.7944.3 gems$1,8282,813 gems63.50x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal$28.7944.3 gems$1,1861,825 gems41.20x

Latest dropsnewest first

P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$28.7944.3 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,219 (77.07x)