2% Evil Win

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$158.35
244 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
128.45%
236 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
116 openings · below min
30 days
236 openings · below min
since tracking started
236 openings · below min
-0.5%186.0%372.5%

Small sample. 236 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h160.00%±0.00—sample
7d116196.04%±175.9—sample
30d236128.45%±107.0—sample
All236128.45%±107.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertHayzeusC$158244 gems$8,93613,748 gems56.43x
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$158244 gems$3,7705,800 gems23.81x
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$158244 gems$3,7705,800 gems23.81x
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$158244 gems$3,7705,800 gems23.81x
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$158244 gems$3,7705,800 gems23.81x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffitiape$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Mr. Teethgraffiti$158244 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $12K (75.74x)