5% Sapphire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$219.81
338 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $197.83 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.92%
2,294 openings, odds method
Variance
35.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,377 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $16.2K 24,999 gems | 41.1% | 12 | 11.9 | 1.01× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $5,928 9,120 gems | 15.0% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $4,719 7,261 gems | 23.9% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.93× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $1,624 2,499 gems | 8.2% | 21 | 23.8 | 0.88× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $1,137 1,749 gems | 11.5% | 56 | 47.5 | 1.18× |
| P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 95.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 0.4% | 2,258 | 2258.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $220 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 5.0%restricted 95.0%best hit $16.2K (73.92x)