AWP Main V10
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.35
60.54 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $35.41 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.40%
1,722 openings, odds method
Variance
21.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,762 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSleepy Jackalope$39.3560.54 gems$9041,391 gems22.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.35 | 89.99% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.8%legendary 0.2%classified 6.0%red 2.0%Restricted 10.0%blue 10.0%Mythical 10.0%restricted 20.0%milspec 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%industrial 10.0%best hit $4,354 (110.6x)